PREDICTING GLOBAL TRENDS - predicting the future to create advantage today
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Syria, Sudan, nuclear, city
terrorism, extremism
greenhouse effect, predictions, government, taxation
minimising future risk creating sustainable advantage creating opportunity
DISCUSSION: AFRICA - THE NEW OPPORTUNITY
... a sustainable future. A mechanism for economic growth.
One of the great barely
spoken secrets of this early part of the 21st century relates to the
sustainability of current global fuel supplies - oil.
Growth of the global economy needs fuel to power this growth. The demand for oil and other fossil fuels is increasing - and the price of oil is gradually increasing. Some people would have you believe the gradual increase in the price of oil is purely down to global instabilities. True, global instabilities will always affect the price of such materials - as the instabilities will always affect global financial markets. Yet the hidden truth is ... global instability is not the only reason for the increase in the price of oil.
One of the main reasons for the slow and relatively unstoppable increase in the price of oil simply is supply. Demand from across the world for oil is increasing yet the supply of oil is about to peak (if it hasn't already). When demand outstrips supply, prices increase. If the supply cannot increase then prices will continue to increase in line with increasing demand. This means those with the greatest will and ability to pay will gain the supply.
This means hardship for all the worlds economies - those who can pay and those who can't.
Companies with oil interests may well be keeping this quiet in order to stop the inevitable rush to search for oil alternatives. These companies want the world to use as much oil as possible and for as long as possible - regardless of the damage this will cause to fragile and established economies, regardless of the damage this will inevitably cause to the environment. This is about maximising profit - and in true business style, they mean to maintain that hold in order to maximise the profit for as long a possible.
The supply of oil is running out.
This means the price of oil will continue to increase.
This means energy hungry economies will increasingly struggle to secure cost effective and sustainable sources of energy with which to power economic growth.
This means fragile economies will falter. This means there will be a massive migratory shift in population from the areas that have not to the areas that have ... all in the name of profit, for only a few. The world is about to undergo significant change.
Research into viable alternatives in many areas of the world are being stifled or at best with a fairly low level of developmental investment. As the price of oil increases, and indeed, as the supply of oil becomes even more susceptible to extremist regimes, in total this will leave many of the worlds economies greatly exposed. This is a fundamental threat to their future few are taking seriously.
So where does this leave Africa?
With some of the more fragile of the worlds economies, the countries of Africa have had to face serious issues in the past, and indeed in the present. With political and religious unrest being promoted by the government of Sudan, with the prospect of global warming laying waste to large tracts of land, with the supply of oil looking ever more precarious, observers might be forgiven for thinking the fate of Africa within the coming generation would not be a good one. Yet might these observers be wrong?
Undoubtedly, following the crash of oil supplies, the world will lurch into using a high degree of sustainable energy sources such as solar power. Admittedly, the current conversion rate of solar energy into electricity for solar cells isn't fantastic ... but the technology is moving forward in leaps and bounds. Before long, with the right level of investment, these new wave of solar cells will be far beyond anything experienced today.
With an abundance of strong sunshine and the very real need to gain a higher level of economic sustainability, as the rest of the world struggles to suck out the last drops of oil, Africa has a definite opportunity to develop a sustainability and energy independence that will be the envy of the world. While many other economies falter because of the lessening supply of inexpensive energy, Africa will have the opportunity to strengthen its economies based on inexpensive energy - and of course lessening the global warming damage to the environment.
Of course, it is never as simple as this. There will always be barriers to overcome and issues to address. For some reason there will always be some areas of Africa that will prefer to reduce economic performance by bidding for increasingly high priced oil supplies, than to reach for energy independence. They will be proven to be wrong. In this period of extensive change, what the world needs more than ever are people with vision and far sightedness. It will be these people and these countries that will lead the way in the new development that will take place, regardless of what has gone on in the past, regardless of the previous position of their country in the great economic scheme of things.
The world is changing.
The world needs energy and power to change or it will crash. The world needs people with foresight to develop this energy and power in order to produce a sustainable change. Africa is in a prime position to do this, to produce a massive amount of solar powered electricity to power homes and factories and offices - and economic growth - while the remainder of the world struggles with dwindling oil supplies and increasing economic hardship - because of a lack of foresight ... and because of the political power of those companies with a vested interest in continuing to reliance on oil.
This will power the economies of Africa.
And more than this ... the new generation of solar power can be utilised by specific industries to produce alternatives to petroleum transport fuel - such as Hydrogen. Currently hydrogen production has an input of a greater amount of energy than its output yet if that energy input was relatively free, inexhaustible and non-polluting then one of the major barriers to hydrogen production would suddenly be irrelevant.
With a much less reliance on oil than for example the US or Europe, the change over to a non-petroleum transport fuel would be more straight forward than in other regions of the world.
The developed world has closed its eyes to the imminent danger to their own economies. A serious mistake.
Africa, long seen as being under developed and at the mercy of a long series of disasters, now has the opportunity to take the lead. As some of the countries with the least use of oil, the change over to alternative sources of energy will be more smooth and will meet less resistance than in the US or Europe. Importantly this will also take much less investment. The lessons learned here can be exported throughout the world.
Africa - a new development. Taking the lead in environmental protection and economic generation. This is not a dream. This is a new opportunity. What will the countries of Africa do about it?
Let the world hear the voices of great people.
There are many of us who are too used to hearing voices of greed and doubt telling us that something cannot be done. Yet in the midst of this created disaster the ingenuity and energy and spirit of humanity shines through with a light that is bright within the gloom.
Let the world hear the voices of great people. There can be change ... if you want there to be. Africa - this is your opportunity. Much of the rest of the world has been crippled by inactivity and greed and short sightedness. Let the world hear the voices of great people.
Written by: JAMES STUART http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesstuart - new direction and development through innovation
