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Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development. Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
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minimising future risk creating sustainable advantage creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: April 2009
PANDEMIC: 29th April, 2009 Let's face it, what bigger news story is there in the world today? Even if it is hype, even if it is the media moving from the disaster of the credit crunch to the potential even deeper disaster of a pandemic (the media need sensationalism to sell their space and time), we just have to take notice. Even if the present "swine flu" (H1N1) turns out not to be a pandemic, it still needs to be taken notice of. People have died. People are falling ill. Even if this isn't a pandemic ... we most definitely have to take notice. Why? Because it's not a matter of "if", but "when" the real event happens. And when it happens, it will happen quickly. It will spread quickly and it will devastate populations, societies and economies. The swine flu displays one thing quite clearly. Governments around the world are well prepared - and these plans are swinging into action. They are well prepared because for a number of years many have had pandemic plans in place for an expected outbreak of "bird flu" (H5N1), jumping species and causing havoc throughout human society. Much like an asteroid hitting the Earth - the experts agree ... it will happen. The question is just when will it happen? Pandemics can be seen throughout history. They are not completely unusual events. They happen when a micro-organism mutates into a new form of pathogen to which there is no immediate widespread natural immunity. Mutations happen all the time. But sometimes, just sometimes, these mutations can cause a previously largely unnoticed bacteria or virus to turn nasty - and with nasty consequences. Some experts say we are well overdue for the next pandemic. Therefore, even if H1N1 turns out not to be one - one will be on its way at some point. And certainly, these days in our world, the consequences are likely to be far more serious than in previous pandemics. Why? Because there are more people than ever before. Because many of these people are now concentrated in overcrowded cities with poor hygiene and access to medical facilities. And most of all, the speed of modern transport links has been shown to be a critical factor in the present spread of H1N1. Basically people move to a completely different part of the world even before they realise they are ill, or realise there is an illness around them. This is a major problem. H1N1 doesn't seem to be particularly virulent (in spite of the media hype), but if it were then it could spread across most of the world before the alarm bells started ringing - and those well laid plans were brought into action. But of course, by then quarantines would be largely ineffective. And if a virulent bug did cause a major pandemic, the conservative casualty figures would be quickly surpassed as hospitals filled up, as medical staff succumbed to the illness, as existing medications would be quite ineffective, as panic began to grip a population and spread to crumble the thin veneer of civilisation, as food and power distribution began to strain. Maintaining law and order under such circumstances would be essential - but would be difficult. And so ... even if H1N1 proves not to be the dangerous story so grabbed on by the media ... it does show the potential. And before the worlds attention is turned to the next impending doom and gloom story, take a moment to think of just what might happen - and how vulnerable your family and you will be when the predicted real and major pandemic silently steals across the horizon ... and wipes out large sections of every population. What sort of a world will survive? As with many things to do with future changes and developments ... the world is often not what is commonly perceived. It's amazing how normal it is to behave like an ostrich then act surprised when something takes place that alters the individuals perfect view of the never changing world. It's a bit like the medieval version of the heavens. It was perfect. Nothing changed. People were burned at the stake for suggesting the heavens changed. And then the heavens could be seen to have changed. People like me, we predict changes. Few people ever pay attention ... until it is too late. Lessons are rarely learned. We aren't as smart as we think we are. Regards JS
ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT: 25th April, 2009 Look around. What do you see? A history lesson. Government – valid, representative, progressive – is one of the greatest attributes of mankind. From the beginning, leadership and proper stable government has created the fertile ground through which development has dragged different societies and the world in general forward. Step by painful step mankind has progressed. We have progressed towards the light of reason. Largely, although obviously not completely, we have progressed beyond the shadows of superstition, beyond the shackles of restrictive stagnation, aiming far beyond poverty, towards something far better than has ever been before. And yet, with each step forward, with each wave of innovation, with each gasp of imagination, with each desperate reach towards those dreams, we have all had to contend with those who would hold us back, who would send us backward into the degradation of stagnation and mediocrity by not being allowed to question (and expect reasonable answers). When you look around, just what do you see? From a non-exclusive vantage point what I can see is chaos. Government is under threat. It is under threat from a number of different areas and struggling to retain some form of control … but it is becoming increasingly difficult. From experience to me this means increasing threat. With increasing threat there comes the increasing potential to halt progression, a decreasing development and very much the potential to decrease sustainability. This of course is not good news. And so the first question that comes to mind is this: would a single world government really be so bad? So many people seem to be vehemently against the concept, the potential, the actuality of a single one world government But why? Does nationalism and individual government factions really serve a valuable purpose in these days of significant shared global threat? Individual governments – of which there are many – complete with their own hidden agenda’s may be seen as a barrier to stability, to grown and to development. They are trying their best, yet with too many competing agenda’s, can the world really be placed in so many hands when the hands aren’t on the same level, when the hands are too much fighting, when the hands are half hidden and clutching their own secret plans for their own individual ends. No, the world needs something better than this. Something better than the perpetuation of chaos. To be honest, the only reasonable alternative would be a single global government. The purpose of this government would be to create stability, to guide valuable development – and to halt the inhumanity of superstition based extremism. Tell me, would this really be so bad? Or would you prefer the chaos? Does anyone - apart from the politicians with their own pockets to fill - really see advantage in perpetuating the petty medieval fiefdoms? Don’t we deserve something better? Regards JS
A HARD WORLD: 10th April, 2009 A Muslim person said to me the other day that life is hard for them because they are a Muslim in a western country, and that it was obvious all westerns distrust Muslims. I thought for a moment and then I said to him he was incredibly stupid and looking for excuses. I told him the world was hard on everyone. It didn't matter if they were black or white or purple with yellow spots, it didn't matter if they were Christian, Jewish, Muslim, atheist or believed god was a great mystical cow. It didn't matter what age they were, social status. It didn't matter if they had acne. It just didn't matter. The world is hard on everyone. Anyone who uses religion or race as an excuse is simply looking for a get out clause - and looking for someone to blame for their own lack of success in one way or another. How stupid and how dangerous can some people be? I don't have an easier life than the next person, but at least I don't expect anyone to do me any favours. I don't believe anyone hates me because of my accent or because of the colour of my skin, or if they do I really don't care. I'm not looking for excuses. I'm looking for a sensible and sustainable way forward to feed and nurture my family. The world is hard on everyone. The fact is, we all have obstacles and challenges to overcome. Not overcoming them by using religion as an excuse for people holding you back is just so pathetic. Who is holding you back? You are. And let's face it ... the world is hard on everyone. And that's the best way for it to be. Because it is by overcoming the obstacles and challenges that we take small steps forward, learning how to progress, how to be better, how to achieve a brighter future. If it wasn't for these difficulties we would have little to strive for. Failing to strive forward for any reason should be an evolutionary lesson to be learned. We did not become the dominant species in the entire world simply by sitting back and using excuses to accept mediocrity. We were and are better than this. Isn't it time to stand up and be counted? Isn't it time to rise to the challenges facing us all instead of looking for excuses not to? Isn't it time to do what we do best and that is to communicate to collectively find a way forward through the obstacles and challenges affecting us all instead of squandering finite resources in endless and pointless bickering? If YOU do use any such excuse then feel free to hold yourself back - but I'm going forward. I'll help anyone who wants to move forward step by painful step, but I've had enough of standing still simply to placate those who use excuses to complain about how hard the world is. Consign yourself to history if you like Yet the world is changing and the pace of change is increasing. It never is the strongest that survives. If it was simply the strongest then mammoths would rule the world. But the fact is ... we survived where as the mammoths did not. It is our capacity to adapt to change that increases survival and development. Use as many excuses as you want to stop changing, to stop adapting, to hold yourself back. That is your choice and I'm a great believer in personal freedom. But as you are being left behind just don't complain to me that you are being left behind and certainly don't say to me you are being left behind because of your race or your religion or because you have no hair or because you are overweight, or any other reason. You have choices. Just don't use excuses. Stand or fall. Take a step forward or sit down and fade into memory. Help where it is needed or spread hate based on your own excuses. You have choices. No one else can life your life. Just make sure you do live your life. And as for me? Well ... when I fly I want to be in a position to help people do the same regardless of who they are or where they are from. What I don't want is for anyone to hold on to my legs and tie me to the Earth, telling me I shouldn't or because they hate the colour of my skin or they hate where I come from or the way I speak. The world is hard on everyone. What this should do is make us all try harder - together. Regards JS
Insight through understanding. Advice you can trust.
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred? The turbulent 21st century life isn't black and white |