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minimising future risk
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PREVIOUS MONTHS: August 2009
LIBYAN PRISONER RELEASE: 25th August, 2009
Out of all the articles ever written for Alt3 - and read by the many across the entire world - this is the one article that demands to be written. And yes, to some it will prove to be controversial.
At the outset I must make clear two basic points:
1. terrorists must be pursued by all means possible and prosecuted to the full extent of the law
2. a strong and vibrant USA is an essential component for the world as we know it and the world as it will be
However, just as was discovered centuries ago (and disputed for a long time) the sun does not revolve around the Earth and the Earth is not at the centre of the universe. Likewise the world does not revolve around the needs and demands of the US, and certainly the US is not at the centre of the universe.
Determining global trends over the course of a number of years has allowed us to come to the conclusion that the US does not understand the world. This is one reason (not the only one) why the world is in a mess and will continue to experience turmoil for some time to come. The US has yet to realise that being a true leader in the new world developing means more than simple reliance on economic or military might. The US does not need to look for an enemy - it needs to look for friends.
The new world developing runs on collaboration and this relies on perception. Collaboration is essential. It is essential for global business, for the struggle against climate change, for the fight against the menace of terrorism, among others. Collaboration is essential for global stability, growth and progression. Entwined as we all are ... collaboration demands consensus ... and this really is based on perception, communication, mutual trust and benefit.
Without it we have very little indeed.
The release of the Libyan Abdelbaset Ali Al Megrahi from a Scottish prison has also released a previously unheard of diplomatic exchange between the UK and the US. While the anger from the families of the victims of the bombing that brought down Pan Am 103 onto the Scottish village of Lockerbie all those years ago is very, very understandable (I was in the air at the time of the crime and so can understand the fear and shock), the response from some in the US administration is far from understandable.
Al Megrahi was released on compassionate grounds. He has weeks to live. Stepping aside from the issue of the evidence that convicted this man of the terrible crime, or indeed even if Libya was involved and there was not another finger on the trigger, the concepts of "mercy" and "compassion" are strong in Scottish culture - and quite rightly so. For the Americans to express anger on behalf of the victims families is understandable. For the American Administration to question the validity of justice in the world is surely beyond belief. I don't really want to drag up a whole list of facts and dates, but how about starting a recent war that cost the lives of tens of thousands based on what some may term ... not quite the truth?
Hmm ... yes, people in glass houses ... etc, etc, etc.
Change the perception.
What we have is a world of "us" and "them" - and it is reaching a very dangerous state. The Muslim world views the west largely in terms of unjust, ungodly devils out to steal everything. The west views the Muslim world as largely being extremist barbarians who destroy everything in its path and even train their children to be suicide bombers. As positions become even more polarised, even more hardened to the extremes, just what are we to do? Are we to continuously look for even more incredible weapons and even more deadly means of delivery? Or are we to take a little step forward to at least show we are willing to break down the barriers that exist? In a world of mad extremists (on all sides) the voices of moderation have clearly been swept aside. It is time to gather your voices and make them heard for moderation, to turn away from the ever damaging philosophy of extremism.
This is not about appeasement. It is about trying to find a way to turn from the megaphone diplomacy and entrenched hatreds that inspire the ever increasing cycles of violence and recrimination.
This will entail difficult decisions. Decisions such as allowing Al Megrahi to be released to Libya (Libya who has found it is in its interests to turn away from extremism to moderation) - and show there can be little steps forward to break the barriers and allow common ground on which to base mutual understanding. All for a safer world. Mercy and compassion are strong in Scottish culture ... as they are strong in other cultures, and will be recognised by many moderates in the Muslim world as a merciful and compassionate act towards a dying man and his family, so perhaps, just perhaps there is now more ground upon which the moderates can make a stand against the extremists. More ground for dialogue between people.
Indeed, this is a world of "us" and "them" - but it isn't Islam against the world. It isn't the west against Islam. It is the battle between those who wish to progress with mutual understanding, and yes, compassion, and those who can easily find reason to destroy, and scream about it at the tops of their voices while burning flags and spreading hate. This battle is a battle in every land and no one is immune. Those of us who believe in progression must find one another and help each other where ever possible, even if it means taking difficult decisions such as releasing a prisoner on the verge of death. Where is the justice in that? It is in the prevention of many, many more being needlessly murdered or maimed or tortured. How many more grieving families do we want to see?
I suspect quite strongly that in a few months or a few years, we will look back at this time and see the release of Al Megrahi for what it was ... a turning point in relations ... if the US can see the world as more than a cause for indignation. We should be working towards a greater plan. Releasing Al Megrahi was a good thing. This is all about perception and, believe it or not, we have taken a small step forward in changing that perception ... and so changing the future.
Regards
JS
THE HEALTHCARE DEBATE: 15th August, 2009
We all hear many, many people talking about "doing the right thing" and helping "one's fellow man" in which ever particular circumstances their words may be relevant to. In reality, however, talk is cheap and actions really do speak louder than words.
The reality we experience across many societies is the rule of self interest above all else, even when this is to the obvious detriment of others. People are largely motivated by self interest. Not all the time of course, but we have to face facts - it is a major driver towards action or inaction. Self interest drives people. Short term self interest drives them even more - hence the global financial crisis ... and it would seem lessons have not been learned.
A much more major crisis is looming. This will be a crisis that will affect the long term viability of the US economy.
Completely leaving the moral imperative to one side, I cannot help but watch the healthcare debate in the US unfold with fascination and - to be honest - incredulity. Someone once told me that the US was the most progressive country in the world ... I guess they were not quite telling the truth, not if the current healthcare debate is anything to go by. It is embarrassing to see such a great country squabbling over greed. From this it is also very clear their economic might is not sustainable. This statement may be a shock to some for they consider the US to be economically invincible. But they are wrong.
Why?
Both education and healthcare are fundamentally linked to the productivity of a country. The level of access to good education and healthcare for a population is a major factor in determining the productivity of that population. If a country - any country - strives to be successful in these crucial times of a fast changing world they MUST have a healthy and educated population (and workforce) in order to produce in a sustainable manner, and in order to meet the increasing challenges we are all faced with. Any factor that undermines the wellbeing of a population and its ability to respond, it's ability to be productive, will decrease the sustainable economic performance of that population.
If the US seriously strives towards sustainable economic performance then it must address the range of factors feeding into the sustainability of success - and access to free healthcare is at the top of the list, or very near the top.
Ironically the people who employ shameful scare tactics to persuade against the implementation of free healthcare are usually those same people who frequently complain about migration into the US from the far flung regions of the world. And yet the main "pull" reasons for migration is the lack of capability and the lack of skills required by the country in order to continue with high levels of output, combined with an underproductive "underclass" who do not have access to decent healthcare or education, who feels completely detached from and resentful towards the benefits of economic sustainability.
Imagine what might be achieved if the energy and ability of these people were harnessed?
It's simple really. Success works both ways. Individuals cannot expect the state to do everything for them. Likewise, the state cannot expect its population to be continuously productive if it receives little in return. As a first step, if a country wants to be economically successful it must look after the health of the country. Failure to do this will ultimately create a decreasing economic performance. Take a good look around the world today. Take a look at economic performance (including debt) and take a look at the health of the people who produce this performance. Can you see a link?
There can be little doubt. The world needs a strong and vibrant US. I can say this even as I'm not a US citizen. I am in a completely different part of the world - and this world would be a much darker place if the US was sickly and feeble. Take my word for it ... massive healthcare challenges and changes are on their way - soon. As a matter of necessity each country must be prepared for these. Free healthcare creates massive and widespread economic benefits. A lack of affordable healthcare creates benefits for a few - yet widespread economic disbenefit for everyone else - and undermines the sustainability of everyone.
The choice is clear. Profit will nearly always come before people. Yet the overall economic performance of an entire country is by far more important than the massive profits made by some in the health industry which consigns people to a dismal underclass. Surely we are all better than this.
Regards
JS
IT'S HAPPENING: 10th August, 2009
THE ALT3 TOP PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS: 21st July 2009 http://www.alt3.co.uk/DISCUSSION_files/July09.htm - has started.
About 2 years ago Alt3 predicted a range of events within the near future that would significantly and fundamentally alter the world we all know. This was a detailed account of cascading events, summarised in the recent top predictions for the next five years (link above). Make no mistake the "Alt3 top predications" was a very brief account of the previous detailed events. These events have started to make themselves felt.
The isolated extreme weather smashing against Japan and the coast of China cannot and should not be seen in isolation. They are a part of a wider series of events cascading one from the other, increasing in intensity and increasing in impact.
Of course, as events follow one from the other and at times run in parallel, essentially feeding one another with energy and impact, not everything is written in stone. That is, even although one event makes itself felt, all other events are not certain ... if there is international action to alleviate the situation. If there is no concerted action, then the series of events will follow one another. Taking into account the length of time it takes for the international community to be spurred into action, it would be a safe assumption to state a number of events WILL follow one another.
The fact is, however, the sequence of events have started.
And who will stop them? The international community, crippled by division and self interest, is a rudderless ship on the edge of a fast approaching storm. Therefore ... where will the sequence of events lead us all?
Fasten your seat belts - the unthinkable is about to happen.
Regards
JS
IS IT ALWAYS SOMEONE ELSE'S FAULT: 4th August, 2009
Is it always someone else's fault?
Today we live in a world that is experiencing fundamental change. This rate of change is increasing over time. Yet the world has always changed ... just not as constant or as fast as today. If we look back through history in order to understand our present position, we can clearly see that even small changes can have a massive impact. This impact would send out ripples of consequence through geography and time to induce further changes which themselves may or may not have an impact. And so we see the gradual build up of a 4-dimensional matrix of cause and effect, increasing the latent knowledge over time and so increasing the frequency of change from an ever higher level of understanding.
From this complex position it is also clear we are all interconnected. No matter how isolated we like to think of ourselves, no matter how much we may want to or not want to take responsibility for our actions and our lives, no matter how much we tend not to notice the warning signs rampaging over the horizon ... we are all connected in one way or another.
So, what does this mean?
It means that an action somewhere will have a consequence elsewhere. This is most definitely NOT the "butterfly effect". It also means that as we are all connected and there are always consequences streaming out of actions, the negative consequences can only be endured - the negative consequences of someone else's actions can only flourish - if we allow them to.
People all over the world are very fond of "burying their heads in the sand", pretending something has nothing to do with them. It's a bit like seeing a street robbery. How many people would cross the road to get away from what's going on, in spite of the calls for help? How many would stand and watch? How many would call the police or intervene in some way? Let's be honest, most would try and ignore the situation in case it brought threat directly to themselves. Yet by ignoring it, the people effectively allow it to take place, they allow the robbers to be more brazen next time, and allow more robbers to haunt the streets choosing victims at will. And the next time ... the victim may well be the people who ignored the original crime.
What's the point then in crying foul?
Indeed, today we are faced with a series of quite incredible challenges - locally, nationally and globally. No matter how much they are ignored, these challenges will not go away. In fact, precisely because they are largely being ignored, they will increase in intensity until they do become a direct threat to the individual. By this time, of course, the damage will have been done. Rectifying the situation at this late stage will be by far more painful and costly than rectifying the situation at an earlier stage.
We see this through global warming. We see this through the potential for nuclear weapons from failed states such as Iran and North Korea. We see this through political correctness and "cultural sensitivity", how many, many people make excuses for religious extremism, terrorism, forced marriages, the continuing blight of slavery and human trafficking. The most current one to hit the headlines are women being flogged in Sudan for wearing trousers. Yet by no means is this an isolated case. It's been going of for years. In some parts of the world girls are not allowed an education. Women are not allowed to work even to feed their hungry families. Women are punished for showing their hair. Women are executed if they defend themselves against their violent husbands.
And we ignore this barbarism?
The barbarians are at the gates.
What sense of civilisation is there that allows us to know these things are taking place ... yet turn away as if it is of no importance? Turning away brings shame on us all. What is taking place in the world today is not just someone else's fault. It won't just affect everyone else. Ignoring them, defaulting on responsibility, only means the problems encroach steadily piece by painful piece from far away until they are at our doorstep, and then they bite us. And when they do bite us, when Iran passes the first nuclear weapon to Middle Eastern terrorists, when a woman is stoned in London or Washington or Paris for daring to wear makeup, or when the police can no longer ensure safety on the crime ridden streets ... will it always be someone else's fault?
When those days come we will all surely look back on today and shake our heads with the deepest remorse. We will understand we could have stopped the bad things from happening earlier, better, faster. Yet we chose to ignore them and hoping it was someone else's fault. We all want a better world. This world will never happen by chance. It will never happen simply by ignoring the bad things in the desperate hope it is someone else's problem or someone else will take responsibility. It is our responsibility.
It is our responsibility - each of us and together - to actively create that better world.
If we don't do it, who will? Who will stop the barbarians at the gates? And if no one does it then for sure the unthinkable will take place ... and then whose fault will it be? Together we need to dare to be better, dare to reach forward, dare to achieve that better world - together.
Regards
JS
Insight through understanding. Advice you can trust.
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?
The turbulent 21st century
life isn't black and white