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DISCUSSION: WARNING - CRUNCH 2
The credit crunch has well known global repercussions. We will all survive the crunch. This should be knowledge to give us comfort even through the darkest hours.
And yet … in a very real sense, this isn’t about mere survival. It’s more about how we survive and the state of survival, the mindset of development – the reaching for something far more sustainable than just more of the same old, same old that got us into the mess we are so obviously in. So therefore, this isn’t about survival. It’s about intelligence.
The credit crunch didn’t happen by accident. It happened through stupidity together with more than a pinch of greed. It has affected everyone and everything. And make no mistake … this will not be the only factor to expose the economic vulnerabilities of countries, of organisations, of people.
The credit crunch jolted the world economically downward. What will follow in the next 2-5 years will be the long, slow nibbling away of economic resilience, the long, slow decline of economic sustainability from a range of different factors – affecting everyone far more than the shock of the credit crunch.
Does this sound too far fetched? Well, it wasn’t that long ago we all thought we were invincible … and then banks started to fold, sending ripples across all sectors of the economy, rising to tsunami of panic and consequence. In these days as the consequences of the credit crunch seem to be lessening, if there is one lesson to be learned it must be that we should not be so arrogant as to believe we are economically invincible. We have to learn the lessons.
The lessons are simple: there needs to be economic resilience through sustainability.
And the shock is? There are forces at work throughout the world which are set to completely undermine global economic resilience. If we are to be successful, if we are to develop economically and socially instead of lurching from crisis to crisis like so many lemmings rushing towards the cliffs, we can no longer afford to stick our heads in the sand and ignore the problems that are building, like so often before.
This is about intelligence. It is about the will to act. It is about creating development that is sustainable and cannot be undermined by anyone elses foolish actions.
Two of the main factors (but by no means the only ones) are the closely linked:
1. the continuing use of fossil fuels as a
means of energy creation;
2. widespread environmental damage.
There has been a recent decline in the price of oil. Would you like a surprise? The decline in the price of oil is only a temporary measure. As we drag ourselves out of the credit crunch quagmire to increase short term development once more, as peak oil begins to bite, the cost of oil will slowly but surely start upward again, next time with no downward respite.
Fossil fuel is the main source of energy that powers much of the worlds development. Increasing costs reduces development. The cost of fuel is set to increase.
It will increase through a combination of areas such as peak oil, inflation, profiteering and its use as a political weapon.
Governments around the world are waking up to the fact that they have allowed themselves to be almost completely tied to a greatly diminishing resource in the hands of (at times) hostile regimes. And yet, in spite of many brave visionary words, how many have actually embarked on programmes of energy independence?
The world is awash with sustainable energy opportunities. Most of these areas are being virtually ignored in order to continue the exploitation of fossil fuels. This is a serious error that will come to haunt the economic sustainability of every part of the world in a way that will make the current credit crunch seem like the “good old days”.
Countries and companies who at this time seek to develop their own particular sustainable energy opportunities will be those who are most successful in 5 years time. They will be the ones who will survive the coming crunch when all else around is failing and resorting to squabbling and armed conflict over fast diminishing fuel resources.
This will take leadership and vision. This is in even greater demand than the issue of sustainable development itself.
Likewise, as the use of fossil fuels continues to pollute, the spectre of widespread environmental damage and disaster looks all the more unavoidable. Talk is moving away from “what if” to “brace yourself”.
Significantly large food producing areas of the world will start to suffer, suppressing food supplies already at risk from the switch from grain to ethanol fuel crops. Likewise, coastal trading areas will also be significantly disrupted through storm action. As the climate grows more severe in the tropical areas, it will also grow more severe and unpredictable in the temperate areas, especially if the oceans currents alter.
Fresh water, already one of the worlds most in demand resources, will become more scarce.
Do you think this will further suppress the worlds economic resilience? Of course it will. And for the environmental damage, this will only be the beginning.
By 10 years time there will be massive population shifts away from the most severely affected areas, mostly into the great cities of the developed world, causing extreme pressure on already pressurised resources. There will be very real social tensions – and violence, spread by technology.
So you see … there really is no option. We can no longer pretend bad things only happen to other people. The credit crunch surely has shown us this at least. The only way to avoid the long, slow decline of global economic performance with all the unwanted repercussions this will entail, is to create a programme of sustainable development – development that is sustainable, beneficial.
Countries who begin this process will be able to avoid at least some of the unwanted issues. The more countries who join together to provide a way forward, the greater the avoidance, the greater the ability to provide economic development. Likewise, companies who engage in this process of sustainable development will reap the commercial rewards. Being at the forefront of this type of market development will mean the opportunity to capture what will be a massive share of a massive market that will determine the future path of a world.
This will take leadership and vision.
Do you know anyone who is interested in creating a new world?
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