Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development.
Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
minimising future risk
creating sustainable advantage
creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: December 2009
THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR IN 2010: 29December, 2009
1. The UK economy will be the last economy of the developed world to come out of recession (foregone conclusion).
2. Increasing oil costs will start to undermine individual national economies.
3. Regional water shortages will start to bite - HARD. Chinese agriculture will begin to falter which will start to have a noticeable effect on their economy and the stability of the population. Regional water shortages will also start to have a MAJOR impact on a number of other global areas. These will spread following 2010.
4. Technology networks will increase thereby creating a further pulse of positive globalisation, reducing costs, increasing opportunity.
5. The above points will increase dissatisfaction among some global areas, leading to an increase in extremism.
6. There will be a major terrorist incident which will suddenly undermine the global economy.
7. In spite of the power of the oil companies and producers, there will be a major "green" breakthrough that will plant the seeds of growth for future sustainability.
8. There will be the beginning of THE major population shift, as previously spoken of by Alt3.
9. There will be significant opportunity in "green" technology, energy and ethical finance
10. There will be significant change within global healthcare and information management.
Would you like to know more?
Regards
JS
THE DAWN OF UNDERSTANDING: 22nd December, 2009
We are at the dawn of understanding. There are major and fundamental changes ahead. This concept of the dawn of understanding is important ... and yet ... it isn't what many would think of or what they may realise. For sure it isn't what may would hope for.
Yes we are all - yes, all of us - are starting to experience the dawn of understanding that we are all - yes, all of us - on the brink of disaster and there is very little that can stop it now. Yet how far it goes depends on you.
There are major and fundamental changes ahead. For some time we at Alt3 have been giving visibility of the series of connected events that are about to occur. This is more than global warming. It is more than peak oil. It is more than increasing population and diminishing resources. It is more than extremism. It is more than lots of things we have termed "convergence". It is far more than this. For we of Alt3 this is a chilling realisation. It is chilling not only because we can deduce what will happen, but it is chilling because we understand WHY we are on the brink of disaster.
This is the dawn of understanding.
The major changes about to take place, and the events are already in motion and starting to impact, can ONLY be turned into advantage by concerted international action by countries, by organisations, by individuals. The dawn of realisation if that in spite of well meaning words hindered by short term political gain and risk aversion, the concerted international action just will not happen. We have to face facts. Look at what's happening. The global political will is not there to change and because of this we are on the brink of disaster. We of Alt3 are painting a vivid picture. We are making a bold and politically incorrect statement - the world is in serious trouble and is actively headed toward that trouble because of self interest, greed and a lack of will.
Some of you who are reading this will understand the impact of what will happen. Some of you will not. The impacts will be significant. They will be severe. They will be long term.
From our assessments we can make an educated guess at the following:
| DEVELOPED WORLD % | DEVELOPING WORLD % | |
| wand to change behaviour | 15 | 20 |
| do not want to change behaviour | 15 | 15 |
| in denial because struggling to survive | 50 | 60 |
| in denial because not interested | 20 | 5 |
The fact is ... we, the human race, are on the brink. There are many who want to change - but not nearly enough, hence the political pressure isn't enough. The natural tendency of politicians is for risk aversion. They won't move unless they have to. In spite of their brave words politicians are rarely visionaries yet in todays world on the brink of fundamental change what we need are visionaries - visionaries with the power to create positive change. And most of all, this is what we are lacking - hence the lack of positive change and the chilling realisation that although there is the realisation we are in trouble, there is the even greater realisation we will not change the way we do things until there is enough pain to move. This is a basic fact of any type of consultancy.
And yet make no mistake ... the time will run out to take effective action while we are waiting for the build up of pain. It will then turn from positive advantage to remedial action born from panic and even more self interest.
This is the dawn of understanding. It is not something we cherish ... yet who pays attention to what we've already predicted and has come true? ALL of what we have predicted has come true. It is a chilling realisation, a true dawn of understanding, that what we have predicated for the future will also come true simply because the time has now run out to change the way we are in the world. Some will say we have until 2015 to alter behaviour to avert global warming yet global warming is only one aspect and very shortly - VERY shortly - the worlds attention will be averted by one if not two of the other forthcoming events BEFORE 2015.
As connected events now unfold across the world and through time, their impact will increase. The severity of these impacts will depend very much on how countries behave, they will depend very much on how quickly companies gain and maintain a sense of responsibility, they will depend very much on how many of the above population % gain their voices and use them. But make no mistake - there will be impacts. The initial ones are unavoidable now. How quickly we as a people, we as a global economy, recover will depend on what we do from now on. If we choose to ignore what's happening and continue on the path of squabble and conflict and selfish self interest then of course the impacts will be severe and deep. If we choose to act and work with a sense of responsibility then we can start to avoid the harshest impacts.
Politicians of all persuasions ... you have to be better than what you have been. It is clear what needs to be done. Alt3 has clear visibility of the range of connected challenges ahead. If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare for success?
If you are a country would you like to know how to create advantage out of chaos? We simply have to be better at what we do. The future sustainability depends on it. You WILL be judged by history.
If you are an organisation would you like to know how to create sustainable commercial advantage?
Contact us. Work towards a greater future. The time has come to choose. Any other time has run out. Will you make a difference or will you make the disaster that is building?
Regards
JS
THE NEXT MAJOR CHANGE: 16th December, 2009
Without a doubt, the world always has been and always will be full of change. The world around us (and with us) is a far more dynamic place than we may perceive it to be. Some changes are small in nature and may have limited impact. Other changes are catastrophic and cause sudden and dramatic shifts. Yet others still are small, but increasing, and tend to sneak up on many of us so before we know it ... BAM!!! ... we're in trouble.
These are the changes that tend to affect business a lot. These are the changes that tend to affect whole nation and regional economies, therefore the global economy, with countless people feeling the consequences.
Without a doubt the world is undergoing a series of shifts that will fundamentally affect every society. There is a whole series of complex and interconnected changes rolling forward over the horizon that we at Alt3 have shed light upon in the past (documented), yet no great surprise, few people seem to have taken notice of. We hate to say we told you so, but in times of great need, that would just be too smug. And for sure, smug we are not. Alarmed, yes. Increasingly alarmed ... yes, getting that way.
Why? Because we are concerned with the consequences and not just the events.
From the series of next major changes to affect a major regional economy (and with an untold resultant impact on the global economy) will be the shortage of potable water in a wide geographical swathe through the agriculturally productive areas of China, through the essential productive areas of Asia, carrying on across the globe touching southern Europe and across central America and the southern United States. China will be among the first to be seriously impacted. This won't be just any drought. This won't just be some temporary shortage of water we have to live with for a few days. No. This will be a sustained shortage of fresh water that will devastate crops, will undermine communities and industry - and national cohesion.
This is going to be a problem.
It is going to be a problem for everyone. For everyone because of the economic impact it will have on the global economy. For everyone because of the population shift this unnatural disaster will trigger (will trigger into something far more substantial in the near future).
The agriculture this water shortage will affect will not recover in the near future. The societies and industries it affects will not recover in the near future. And this is why it is going to be a problem.
This change may be touted by some as the immediate edge of global warming. To some extent they will be correct, but by no means is global warming the only culprit. In fact, on this occasion, global warming is only a minor (but increasing) culprit.
Devastating - yes. Avoidable - yes. Will it be avoided - no. Governments tend not to avoid disasters unless there is enough pain to make them move, especially in the current economic climate when massive investment will be required. Here in is the core of the issue. When, rightly, the world is focused on global warming, those other fundamental changes about to take place are sneaking up on governments and countries - and will be upon them in the very near future.
Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
Would you like any further advice?
Regards
JS
THE FUTURE OF AIR TRAVEL: 15th December, 2009
Much of the talk these days is around the much required and necessary "Copenhagen" agreement. Without a doubt, a lack of a coherent agreement now will lead to significant difficulties not so far in the future.
As we all know, there are many reasons for the fact that we are on the verge of man-made global warming. Industrialisation, increasing population, fossil fuels, intensification of farming, deforestation, increasing consumerism and increasing standards of living, etc., etc., etc. As the above can no longer be argued with, so another fact cannot be argued with - global development cannot be halted, cannot be stalled - the world cannot return to some idyllic past that in reality did not exist.
We have to find a balance. We have to work smarter, not harder. This is the same for countries as it is for corporates as it is for consumers.
One of the major debates taking place at the moment is on the future of air travel. As development increases so it is reasonable to assume the need and desire to travel will increase as globalisation evolves. Using the emotions behind the Copenhagen agreement, there are already calls to curtail air travel and to curtain the creation of new airports. This is a fairly blind aim at an easy target and displays only how little those people understand the nature of the changes that will take place. Any investigation of the past, present and future rarely displays true linear movement. This is the same for air travel. Increased global development will not mean a proportional increase in air travel and certainly not a proportional increase in the pollution from air travel.
There are two reasons for this:
1. business travel will increase much less swiftly than has been predicted.
Business travel is expensive in many terms. Companies can no longer afford to engage in unlimited travel. And anyway, the nature of the new globalisation taking place means there is a need for instant communication - and more of it, far more than can be achieved by jumping on a plane. The new wave of technology and the decreasing expense of this technology means a viable alternative to business air travel. It is an alternative that will drive globalisation without the associated costs in terms of money and pollution.
2. New plane design and fuels will decrease the environmental impact.
The air industry knows its own weak spots very well. Already we are seeing the production of new planes that will require a significant decrease in fuel. Already we are seeing the experimentation of new types of plane fuel that together will heavily decrease the environmental impact of air travel.
So you see ... reducing the carbon output does not mean a reduction in global development. Far from it. Ingenious and energetic creatures as we are, we find viable alternatives. This will be the future of air travel.
Regards
JS
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The turbulent 21st century
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