Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development.
Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
minimising future risk
creating sustainable advantage
creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: February 2009
PIECES OF THE JIGSAW: 27th February, 2009
Last night I chaired an event in central London. This was for about 50-60 people from several different countries a number of whom had flown in specially for this occasion. It was good to see the wind of change bringing different people together with one common focus - to create something better, better than we have had - with personal responsibility for creating that change.
Before I introduced the other speakers, I spoke at length about the slow realisation that was creeping into business. This realisation was far removed from the highly damaging traditional business philosophy of "maximising profit at any cost". Such a philosophy tended to make businesses feel they existed in isolation from the rest of the world, almost, and in a near state of war with suppliers, customers, competitors (a mirror image of the same countries). Such a philosophy meant a vast expense of resources running to stand still. And as the pace of change throughout the world increased, so would the need to expend even greater resources running to stand still. Clearly this is not sustainable - and the damage caused in the name of profit (or nationalism) is immense.
But ... piece by piece, area by area this was changing. The smart people were starting to realise that with the scale and scope of the challenges facing us all, no one person had all the answers, no one organisation, no one country has all the answers. And so is being born the concept of "collaboration" - hardly a new concept ... but new enough for the harsh world of business and global diplomacy.
Collaboration is being spoken about and acted upon in many high level areas. It means creating sustainable business through the appreciation of the full spectrum of business activities, an appreciation that each of us, and each business, exists in a community, in a society - and it is the responsibility of sustainable business to ensure the growth and development of each community and society it touches, to ensure a stable platform of growth for everyones benefit. Business does not exist in isolation. None of us exist in isolation. No country exists in isolation. We are each a piece of the jigsaw. The more pieces that are missing, the greater the probability of falling through the holes.
Creating sustainable development for organisations and for countries requires collaboration - a sharing of information, of skills and abilities. Why re-invent the wheel? Re-inventing the wheel is costly and risky, and in this day and age of finite resources and new challenges, it is quite simply madness.
We are better than this. We have to understand we are better than this. We have to begin the process of sustainable development through collaboration in order to overcome the challenges approaching over the horizon, and take advantage of the opportunities. This is the same for a company as it is for a country. We are not medieval kingdoms any more.
Last night was good to see the wind of change in action. I look forward to creating more.
I am a father. I know many others who have children. I know that throughout the world there are tens of millions of people who have children. I do not know these people. Yet ... I know we all share a common goal - and this is to make the world a far better place for our children. This is what unites us. This is what will cause the wind of change to blow across the borders and gather together the disparate and the sometimes acrimonious pieces of the jigsaw together to stop the pointless squabbling and squandering, to create a sustainable future.
This is something we all have to work towards. I always tell people - we are in this together. If you fall, be sure I will pick you up, because if I fall then for sure I want you there to help pick me up. We stand or we fall - together.
If I can be of any help - let me know.
Regards
JS
A critical Breaking Point: 23rd February, 2009
There can be no doubt the wheels of change are turning with more depth now than ever before. The recent economic crisis has shown us that seemingly small events cause ripples of consequence which build momentum to release a wave of incidence that affects everyone.
However, human nature as it is, as the dust begins to settle and we start to count the cost of recent events, many people are taking a deep breath thinking the crisis is over, or at least there is an end in sight. They are wrong.
What we are experiencing is a chain reaction. It's always been that way yet now it has reached such a critical point that each set of ripples of consequence creates not one wave, but a series of waves, each one greater than the last, as other events join to produce something far greater. The dip that allows us to draw breath and think all is well, is merely that - a dip before the rise in activity once more. And this new rise of activity, over the course of time, will cause far more fundamental change than any credit crunch.
Fasten your seat belts. And the strange thing is ... very few people are paying attention, so when the wave hits once more those who are not paying attention will only proclaim how surprised they are - and blame everyone else for their stupidity.
The wheels have been set in motion. In the next few years we will experience a massive wave of migration that will strip some societies bare, and will completely swamp others.
There has always been migration. And indeed, on the whole migration is a good thing. Yet now there will be a series of triggers that will ratchet up the wheels of change to a critical breaking point.
The first has been the credit crunch which has made even worse the divide between rich and poor causing an increase in the drift-osmosis effect, with an increased pull from the poor to the rich areas. In the coming 6-9 months this pull will slowly become greater as later this year, and into the next the following trigger will come into play.
This second trigger will be evident through the long, slow decline of sustainability of a large number of countries with fragile economies due to the credit crunch and the increase in basic costs, as well as a decrease in available aid. Economic conditions will become even more hard within these countries, giving a greater reason for people and skills to move in this age of fast, efficient transport.
The third trigger, quickly following the second, will be the loss of food production because of a number of reasons including the biofuel switch from food crops, decreasing fresh water and increased inclement weather.
The fourth trigger will be a worsening of the fresh water situation and the loss of agricultural production through decreasing water and an increasing global warming. This will make large areas of previously productive land unproductive. The affected areas will stretch in a band across the circumference of the Earth, through some of the most populated areas.
And the effect of this?
People will move. People will move from the land into the cities. This will have a number of effects. There will be a limited negative feedback cycle with respect to decreasing food production. There will also be a massive increase in city population which will have dramatic effects. This will place a number of specific cities on the bursting point. As cultures clash within small spaces there will be violence and crime, and a rise in extremism, both from the newcomers and importantly from those who were there from the start. There will be massive pressure on localised resources to cause shortages and even more price increases and through these even further hardships. In some areas there is likely to be disease. In all areas government and law enforcement will be severely tested. City pressures will include water, education, health provision. Few cities will be immune. Some specific cities will find themselves in significant difficulties.
So ... people can take a deep breath and believe the dust is settling from the credit crunch, but ...
We have just experience the first trigger. If we work together, as an international community, we can halt the above process at the second or even at the third trigger. If we don't do it by this point then when the world reaches the fourth trigger there will be no stopping the consequences.
The world needs leaders of vision who can put aside old enmities, work together and create something better. The world does not need any more division. We face a common set of problems. We need each other. Let us create that something better - for the benefit of all because if we don't do it, who will?
Regards
JS
The Trouble With And The Hope For Iran: 15th February,2009
As a part of my interest in counter terrorism, social dynamics and how the world will be in 3-5 years (considering the extensive changes about to take place), I've been doing a lot of research into Iran. Of course I have - and with an open mind!!! We all know, we don't have to look far to find military and political "intelligence" that outlines in detail the extent to which Iran is involved in funding and arming factions in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and others, creating deadly instability throughout the Middle East, the latest result of which was the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Now, whilst these reports (from almost every group, angle, aspect) are likely to be true, one MUST ask the questions why? And ... isn't this simply an emulation of what's been going on in the Middle East and throughout the world from other powers and superpowers? The condemnation of Iran reminds me of the old saying "people in glass houses should not throw stones".
Honestly, we also don't have to look far to see the strong evidence of vast and unwarranted interference from too many externals. It's clear what has to be done to step back from the madness we are on the brink of.
There are many in Iran who see themselves at war - and war is waged against them from overt and covert programmes. Conversely there are many within Israel and the US who feel exactly the same and believe it is their divine right, or even the pure instinct of survival, to continue this hidden war in order to survive, in order to justify their own beliefs.
And, honestly, just what will this achieve?
The world has finite resources already. Why waste the rest of them on this pointless conflict that is simply a true testament of the inhumanity of man?
To the people in the west - the Iranians are not stupid, mindless terrorists whose only skill is to organise unconvincing mass protests to burn an endless supply of flags. To the people of Iran - the west is not populated by demons whose only intention is to enslave the world. As there are extremists on all sides, so there are reasonable people on all sides. The extremists, where ever they be, only have power if reasonable people stand back and allow them to have it - and then deny responsibility. In a land of extremists, the extremists become ever more extreme simply to have their voices heard in the increasingly insane din.
The world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. The time is right to reach out and start to build bridges. Dire and desperate crimes have been committed by all parties. No one is innocent. No one is pure. No one is right over everyone else. There is a great need for the reasonable people to stand up and be noticed. It's happened in the US with Barak Obama. In Iran there are people such as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - now there is a man I can do business with. In a fast changing world, Iran really does need reasonable and respected people.
The trouble with Iran is that, currently in the grip of the extremists, it is using exactly the same tactics as it accuses the west of doing. In a world of increasing madness, being more mad, is hardly a route to success. The world needs no more extremism, whether from Iran or from anyone else.
The hope for Iran are reasonable, reasonable and respected people such as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Mr. Rafsanjani, if you are listening - as you are a reasonable person, speak to us. We are reasonable people. We have common ground. We all want the best future for our children. We are all in this world together. We have a shared future - together. And ... we all have our own home grown extremists to contend with. I know we are not all like that. It is time we took responsibility for our future.
Be a world leader. Be one of those few who changes the world for the better - not one of those lunatics who believes in changing the world through killing as many people as possible. We've all had enough of them.
Regards
JS
COUNTER TERRORISM: 10th February, 2009
Today I was a visitor to the Counter Terrorism Expo in London. There were a lot of people. There were a lot of vendors. The conference talks were, as expected, commercial. However, it was still all good to see. There was a vibrancy about it, not nearly as frantic and desperate as other commercial expo's ... and so was a pleasant change.
But ... a number of things struck me as I watched the flow of people and the informative sales people.
1. innovation (mainly from active SME's and mid-range companies) is alive, thriving and so very essential.
2. Most of this innovation has a solid core of technology. Yet some of it is new technology, some tried and tested but with new application.
3. It was all fairly relaxed and (for once) non-pushy. Believe me, this was a relief - a welcome one - considering the current economic climate.
4. I'm involved in the full extent of social dynamics, including the threats and opportunities. Counter Terrorism is at the far end of the scale - much needed, but at the same time, only a small part of the overall story to deal with what will happen in the near and mid term future.
5. There is a definite undercurrent of the industrial-military complex (yes, even in Europe) with the piece by piece privatisation and commercialisation of the military, police and intelligence.
6. It was weird. I mean ... going into all that extremist orientated development, mulling around with an arm full of brochures and accompanying technical details ... and then emerging back into the "normal" world where people were mainly only concerned with their daily activities, and getting through another day.
All of this made me wonder. It was clear, from speaking to a number of the exhibitors today, that most - like the ordinary people - had very, very little view of how the world is developing. I must admit, I didn't speak with any of the potential buyers, but I wonder if they would be any different ... hence the reason for the world being in such a state. People (and especially decision makers) often talk about strategic development, etc, etc, etc. And yet how many have a view of what the world will be like in 3-5 years time? How many of their phantom strategies will be relevant? How many of these very same people will themselves be relevant? Truly, they don't have a clue - and this is the most shocking thing.
Emerging back out into the sunlight, with the thronging tourist crowds and the busy people trying to get from A2B, I can't help thinking ... if we are so smart, shouldn't we be working smarter, not harder?
Make no mistake, the many different aspects of counter terrorism is and will be very much needed. But who needs it more? The decision makers, the commerce, or the ordinary people busy with their daily tasks.
All this would be so easy to sort out. Instead ... the world is in for some difficult times. And, one of THE most difficult areas is that as the world in general experiences an increasing level of change, there will be an increasing number of disaffected people who are easy prey for extremist recruiters. All of this would be so easy to sort out.
But ... is anyone interested?
Regards
JS.
Insight through understanding. Advice you can trust.
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The turbulent 21st century
life isn't black and white