PREDICTING GLOBAL TRENDS - predicting the future to create advantage today
minimising future risk creating sustainable advantage creating opportunity
DISCUSSION: IRAN - victim
or perpetrator?
For many in the international community Iran is perceived as the greatest threat to global stability, as well as being the cause of much of the global anguish through the export of extremism and the funding of global terrorism.
Is this perception correct?
What are the events that have led to the current situation where it would seem there to be the increasing prospect of extensive conflict?
The conflict that may appear as a result of the desperate enmity between Iran and some other members of the international community will not result in benefit for anyone. The destruction and animosity this approaching conflict will cause will blight global development and stability for decades to come. It will provide reason for anyone with a grudge and a bomb to perpetuate the cycle of barbaric destructive violence that has caused so much dismay and heartache.
What has caused this situation? Interference into the affairs of Iran.
Continuing interference - even for what may seem to be the best reasons - will only continue the problem as well as escalate the problem. Just look at the consequences of interference throughout the world. Likewise, Iran should also note this reality and stop making the same mistakes other countries have that will invariably return to haunt it in later years.
1941: UK and the USSR invade Iran to prevent potential Iranian assistance to Hitler who had launched in invasion into the USSR.
The PERSIAN CORRIDOR: the full scale supply route through Iran to the USSR that became a major US and UK involvement in Iranian affairs.
1951: democratic Iranian parliament votes to nationalise their growing oil industry to gain control from profiteering oil companies including the highly influential AIOC (Anglo-Iranian Oil Company).
UK places an embargo on Iranian oil exports that severely damages the Iranian economy.
1952: The Iranian government closes the UK embassy in Iran.
1953: UK, unable to gain oil revenue, persuades the US to intervene in Iran due to the fictitious risk of communists taking over the country and aligning with the USSR. UK and US forces arguably fund and organise a covert coup to overthrow the democratic government of Iran, to be replaced by forces loyal to the Shah of Iran (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi).
1960's - 70's: strong economic growth, pro-western, relations with Israel, womens rights, strongly autocratic rule.
1979: Islamic revolution. The Shah and his family go into exile. The creation of an Islamic Republic. New Iranian government extremist and anti-western due to cultural differences AND the role of the west during the reign of the Shah. October 1979, the Shah goes to the US for cancer treatment. November 1979, Iranians stormed the US diplomatic mission in Tehran, holding hostages for 444 days. The hostages were released, it is said, in exchange for massive shipments of US arms.
1980: the Shah dies in July. The Iran-Iraq war begins in September when Iran is invaded by Iraq.
1980 - 1988: The Iran-Iraq war was to last for 8 years and cause USD $350bn damage to the Iranian economy. Iraq gained US military support and financial support from Saudi Arabia ($30.9 billion), Kuwait ($8.2 billion) and the United Arab Emirates ($8 billion). The war costs Iran in excess of one million lives. Tens of thousands Iranians die from Iraqi chemical weapons attacks.
Jewish groups pressurise US companies to halt chemical weapons exports to Iraq.
During the war, the UN refuses to sufficiently condemn the actions of Iraq, mainly because of the enmity against Iran as well as the level of arms sales from the US, China and the USSR to the conflict zone. It is only in 1991 that the UN voices its disquiet over Iraqi actions during the war. By this time, Saddam Hussein had lost support of western governments.
21st Century: Increasingly extremist Iran feels it is on its own and surrounded by potential enemies. This is the era of the pursuit of nuclear power, condemned by many in the international community as the pursuit of weapons grade nuclear material. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls for Israel to be wiped off the map.
Significant claims that Iran funds global extremism and is implicated in supplying weapons and expertise to the increasingly bloody chaos of neighbouring Iraq, as well as extremist groups in Lebanon who arguably perpetuate the war against Israel and destroy any opportunity for peace.
An increasing war of words especially with the US. The capture of UK military personnel on duty preventing smuggling into Iraq.
The reported increasingly poor Iranian economic performance.
The reported increasingly harsh treatment of internal Iranian dissidents. Well publicised widespread internal human rights abuses.
The increasing international isolation of Iran.
From the above brief history it is clear why the present Iranian government does not respect US inspired UN resolutions. Iran is pursuing its own path of internal and external confrontation regardless of consequences. In this situation it is also clear why many in the international community do not know how to communicate with the increasingly isolated and extremist Iranian government. It is clear that calls for internal change from within Iran are being met with the harshest of actions, diminishing the voices of reason, increasing the depth of extremism.
Are Iran and the US implacable enemies? Currently - yes.
Is this situation permanent? No.
As the international stakes are raised almost on a daily level the question must be asked ... where will it all lead? On the surface the answer would seem to be confrontation. However, looking beneath the surface confrontation would seem to be avoidable. Signals are there to be detected that Iran is now open to specific communication. More than that, it would seem that Iran is quietly signaling its willingness to actively communicate with the wider international community.
Is this a ploy? Will this lead to another blind alley? Is this another time diversion tactic by an Iranian government increasingly under pressure? Will the US discount these signals and promote further confrontation by funding internal Iranian dissident groups and attempting a gradual overthrow of the present Iranian government?
The communication signals are there. The international community would be foolish to ignore them. Based on past experience, the international community will also treat any Iranian approach with suspicion ... yet without realising why the Iranians themselves treat the international community with suspicion.
What we are presented with is an opportunity. It is an opportunity to collectively progress beyond the increasing chaos. No country can stand on its own, especially if reliant on non-diversified oil production that has peaked and an unhealthy economic forecast. Likewise, this entire situation has evolved PARTIALLY because of external interference into internal Iranian affairs.
The long and painful era of external interference into any state affairs should come to an end. Let this be a lesson to imperialistic powers. The cold war is long gone. Let this be a lesson to any governments who listen too closely to commercial organisations who have their own short term selfish interests at heart.
No one is totally right and no one is totally wrong. What has gone on in the past should be consigned to the past - and learned from. It should not preclude anyone from acting responsibly in the future. Most governments, most people want to act responsibly. The trick is in finding common ground upon which to act and be seen to be responsible by all parties concerned. This takes skill, it takes patience but most of all it takes people of courage and foresight.
The time has come to reach for a new vision of the future.
Iran: you should know the world is running out of patience. The world needs no more extremism. Your country needs stability and growth - both of which are lacking.
US: you should know the world is running out of patience. The world needs no more blundering misdirected strategy. Learn from past mistakes. Have some strategic insight. Beware of blowback. A great country is measured in more than economic might.
The time will come for the people of Iran to decide the path of their future? Will it be extremism causing continuing hardship in Iran and barbarism throughout the world ... or will it listen to the voices of reason and lead towards progression and financial growth.
Everyone will suffer from your lack of foresight if you choose to have no foresight. The time has come to reach for a new vision of the future. Be courageous.
The time has come for a halt to the funding or incitement of global terrorism and the spreading of extremism. The time has come for a halt to the politics of holding people and the world to hostage.
The time has come for a halt to the interference by specific global powers in the affairs of countries who disagree with these global powers. It has been interference in the affairs of Iran that has caused this present situation. It has been the covert and overt interference in the affairs of many countries that has led to the deep distrust and suspicion of the US, the US now finds difficult to understand - and to tackle. No one is totally right. No one is totally wrong. Mistakes have been made by many people. This does not mean mistakes should be continuously made. Continuous mistakes and a lack of dialogue will only lead to further damage and a further cycle of distrust and conflict and barbarism.
There is no excuse for this - from anyone. Civilisation is more than just a word. It is time to leave the past behind and look out to determine what type of a future is beneficial for everyone.
The time has come to reach for a new vision of the future. By its very nature this has to be a collective future. History will judge you.
Work with us to produce this new future.
* the future will not be sustainable through the slaughter of people attempting to achieve peace. The shameful bloodshed throughout Iraq and through Lebannon should unite even implacable enemies in the pursuit of peace. Peace will NOT be gained through supplying groups with bombs and bullets to slaughter people shopping for food or queuing for jobs. Peace, stability and sustainable progression never will be gained by institutionalized extremist measures, extremist governments or anyone screaming words of hate, murder and intolerance.
Shame on you, whoever you are.
The world is bigger than all of us - yet what we do in each day will reflect on into the future. What type of future do you really want?
Written by: JAMES STUART http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesstuart - new direction and development through innovation
