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PREVIOUS MONTHS: July 2009
THE ALT3 TOP PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS: 21st July 2009
Welcome to the world we are developing into. Make no mistake there are significant challenges ahead - yet nothing is set in stone. Below are predictions based on past and current events / trends. In this manner, if the current developments continue, we are confident about the predictions with a fairly good degree of certainty. However, if the current developments do not continue (for example, we all suddenly stop using fossil fuels - unlikely, we know) then the predictions will obviously be affected.
There is a lot of detail behind these predictions but to keep the text to a minimum, the predictions have been generalised.
About the only major uncertainty is when a terrorist group will gain access to WMD. This is not an "if", but a "when". There are a number of extremist states and antagonistic regimes out there who preach only destruction as a means of distraction from their own failed domestic policies.
It must also be noted that several of these forecasts will run in parallel with one another, for example, the changing weather patterns and extreme weather events especially in the most susceptible areas such as the coast of China and the US, starting 2009 and increasing in intensity throughout 2010.
1. There will be slow but sure global financial recovery throughout the remainder 2009 and on into 2010. It will soon become clear significant lessons have not been learned with the 2008 / 2009 financial safeguards being only partially successful, yet enough for a cautious confidence to be returned. Different countries will begin to come out of the crisis at different rates, depending on how they managed their crisis. From this the world will start to develop once more.
2. 2010 will see the first major regional water shortages in specific parts
of the world. This will have a major impact on the productivity of these
areas, and therefore the ability of each region to feed itself. This in turn
will be the push for what will, within 3-5 years, become a major population
migration. Initially this migration will be from the land to nearby cities.
Within the cities there will be severe tensions of the availability of
resources. The migration will then more more towards the developing to the
developed world, where once more there will be stress on the availability of
resources and the preservation of culture.
3. The water shortages will be both as a direct result of the over use and misuse of fresh water supplies, as well as the first major indications of global warming and shifting weather patterns. Within 3-5 years these shifting weather patterns will cause a noticeable change in both continental and marine climates. The seasons will become more extreme, with different effects in different climatic areas. The marine climate regions (the shores and that part of each country directly inland from the shores) which comprises much of the long distance bulk trade routes, will become increasingly susceptible to storms and storm damage. Consequently, in some regions of the world there will be drought while in other regions there will be severe flooding. This will first be felt throughout China, India and the southern areas of the US.
4. Peak Oil. The continuing reliance on oil will significantly hamper the economic performance of specific countries. The oil price will increase in line with decreasing supply which will eat into the economic sustainability of these countries and will place at risk any economic recovery from the previous crisis. Those areas of the world who have embraced alternative, more sustainable, sources of energy and fuel (not biofuels) will discover they have the means to further fuel their development and progression - and outstrip those countries who have continued to fuel growth through the increasing cost of oil.
5. Technology, the range and scope and impact of technology, will increase. The R&D of some companies and some countries with respect to reliable, high quality, fundamental change technologies, will give them the leading edge in commercial performance. This will include entertainment, communication, lifestyle, genetic engineering, health, materials science and sustainable technologies. New industries will rise. As a result, there will be an extensive increase in electronic information and the use of e-information individually, corporately and nationally. Corporates who are unable to undertake this business change will be commercially disadvantaged. With the growth of e-information there will be increased hacking activity, both from an individual mischievous angle, and importantly from an organised attempt at cyber war from specific regimes and from extremists.
6. Surveillance. There will be a rise in the overt surveillance society. Competing against this direction of travel will be the constant calls for human rights and specific liberties, which will increasingly be listened to, yet in the context of greater threat from criminals, terrorists and those who sought to take advantage of the increased competitive environment between countries and between corporates. There will be an increasingly blurred line between what is acceptable and what is not.
7. Terrorism. Within 2-3 years a terrorist group will have gained a weapon of mass destruction directly from one of the hostile regimes in the world ... and will use it on one of a number of very specific target areas. This will spark a sudden global economic decline, and it will spark conflict in one form or another. Destructive as it is, this will be a galvanising force. For the first time there will be clear lines between what is right and what is wrong, regardless of culture, location, religion, colour, etc. What happens following this point will depend greatly on the calibre of political leadership and the ability to turn away from religious extremism in specific regions of the world.
8. Political. Already underway but galvanised by the constant threat of terrorism and the increased use of surveillance / e-information, there will be a movement to blur the lines between some specific countries, creating the rise in regional political power rather than isolated national power. To some this will be an attack on liberty and culture. To others it will be the only conceivable way forward to gain control of what they perceive as a rising level of chaos. This will be an attempt to create order out of chaos. It will be more successful in some parts of the world than in others, depending on the depth of division already present.
9. Health care. Within 3-5 years a number of the prominent health care systems around the world will be broken. Others will be under severe strain. This will be due to a number of factors such as the rise in specific health trends (for example, COPD, type 2 diabetes, etc.) and the general aging of the population, as well as the mismanagement of some health care systems. Significant steps towards insuring effective treatment (for example, some cancers) will have been made and this will have a major impact. But increasingly some health care systems will find their ability to deliver widespread high quality health care diminishing. There will be calls for greater funding ... but only by those who fail to understand the fundamentals of managing health care, of which there are and will be many.
10. Restricted information. Contents restricted to Alt3 only.
SUMMARY: the world is undergoing significant change. What we do today will impact on the changes of tomorrow. Many of the changes will be good (for example, new medical cures), yet some not so good (for example, the consequences of religious extremism). How we handle these will determine the outcome.
How will these changes affect you?
Regards
JS
VISIBLE HEALTH TRENDS: 18th July 2009
For some time I've been aware of the obvious ... that there are a number of health changes taking place common throughout the global population. It's my job to be aware of these and aware of the impact they will have. These changes are clear to everyone involved in the health sector. And yet, in spite of widely held views, much of the worlds health sector will be completely swamped by the changes about to take place simply because they are largely resistant to change and are admitting they will be unprepared ... in spite of years of warning. And the shocking thing is those in charge are hardly even "batting an eye lid".
Most of these changes will not be noticed by the bulk of the population who are fixated on their daily tasks. They will be aware of the changes but like most other things if it doesn't impact them directly, most people will push it all to the back of their minds.
However, one of the global health trends is obesity.
This will give rise to a whole range of aggravated health conditions which will significantly impact the health of the general population - and the capability for the health sector to cope not only with obesity but consequently with all other areas of health care.
Today I was in a place where a lot of people had gathered. This in itself is not unusual. And yet, perhaps for the first time the scale of the obesity epidemic was brought home to me ... right there before my eyes. The number of people (mainly in sports shirts and shorts) who were vastly overweight was shocking. Not slightly over weight, but severely over weight. This is no disrespect to the people involved. However from a health perspective the sheer number of people that are or will be in receipt of extensive healthcare services due to increased physical weight is alarming. This will take a huge chunk of anyones health budget and will decrease the ability to deal with other healthcare areas. It will have an impact on general skills, productivity, quality of life and family life. And, the worst realisation is ... the obesity epidemic is set to increase.
The consequences of conditions such as a global increase in type 2 diabetes due to obesity is already starting to be unacceptable. All over the world the health alarm bells are ringing ... yet with few decision makers listening or knowing what to do. It is clear what has to be done.
This is a health area few regions of the world are immune to. This is an issue that will impact almost every society, every healthcare system, every country capability. How will it affect you?
This is an impending serious problem. It is simply one problem among a myriad of impending health problems. The world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. The challenges approaching us all are not simply a matter of government responsibility. They are a matter of individual responsibility above all else.
We need to take more responsibility. We need to stop believing it is some one elses responsibility and expect them to run our lives for us.
Regards
JS
THE IDENTIFICATION AND ADOPTION OF INNOVATION: 14th July 2009
It is a common misconception that “the strongest survives”.
If it was simply a matter of strength we would see mammoths and sabre-tooth tigers roaming around today. Clearly there are none. This means there must be another important factor or factors that determine survivability.
Look through the history of every species, the dynamics of every society – and that other factor becomes clear. Those who survive and flourish are those who have the greatest capacity and responsiveness to change. And as our human world moves faster and as the dynamics become more complex, this responsiveness to change becomes increasingly important for any organisation, any society, to remain relevant.
This requires an understanding of:
• change • internal culture • external developments
Of course, this is different for every organisation and every country. Every organisation is a unique society in its own right. It has its own strengths and weaknesses, its own ambitions, capacity, skills and inherent knowledge – its own culture.
If there was only one way to unravel a scrambled rubix cube then everyone would have learned how to do it quite quickly.
One of the key elements of sustainable and progressive change within a fast moving, highly commercial world, is the identification and adoption of relevant innovation. It is crucial to understand the evolving landscape we are a part of, how it is developing, what is emerging over the horizon – how we can use these developments to create sustainable advantage, most especially in times of great challenge.
The most difficult area of this essential development is not resource - it is culture. Some cultures are chaotic and change too much with no control. Some cultures do not change and so will be consigned to history. Within every culture there will always be resistance to change, where change is perceived as a threat - yet change there has to be if we are all to overcome the challenges approaching over the horizon. There has to be leadership. There has to be development - and mutual development most especially in times of great challenge.
This is such a time. For every country, for every company, for every person, this is such a time.
BALANCED INNOVATION: (another way of looking at things) it's not enough to have a good car. The car has to run on a road. The car and the road must have acceptable standards - as must the maintenance and service of the cars and the roads, as well as the breakdown services and the fuel and information on any hold ups along the way. And everyone must speak the same language in order to communicate, to communicate the service history and immediate future needs to increase the effectiveness and the running time of the car and the road.
Without any of these components either the car or the road will stop functioning. If these components do not work together then no matter how good the car or the road, neither will achieve their full potential and will continuously attract high maintenance and cost. We see this in some vehicles. We see this in some countries.
Achieving any level of harmony requires collaboration. It’s the same with business. It's the same with countries. As businesses change, as their markets develop, as new competitors, new expectations, new services transform the business landscape, the established business requires new ways of looking at that landscape to determine the best way forward. Resistance to change and development means the vehicle of business activity does not function as well as the newer models … and slowly but surely becomes consigned to history. Likewise, any country that seeks to alienate itself from everyone else and radicalises its population to fear demons and enemies, to inspire blind conflict will also, in time, be consigned to history.
It is inevitable.
Innovation provides an input into developing sustainable evolution. And yet, within a fast moving world, even as it is inadvisable to have organisational inflexibility, it is equally inadvisable for any organisation to be so flexible as to be chaotic. There has to be control. For the sustainable adoption of innovation this means creating a balance between the everyday restrictions of "business as usual" or tradition, and the complete lack of restriction through having no control.
This is balanced innovation.
A key component of Balanced Innovation is the timely identification of relevant areas of development. Commonly known as "horizon scanning" this gives visibility of what will be tried and tested mainstream within the 3-5 year time frame. This gives a good view of what’s coming over the horizon. Anything beyond this is "blue sky". It would be a waste of finite resources to expend too much time on blue sky developments.
Gaining visibility of these innovations and so the opportunity to maximise business benefits places great emphasis on horizon scanning as well as the free flow of information from those potential major partners. Alienation does not work.
The balancing of innovation and "business as usual" is possible only if specific factors are met. There should be a clear appreciation that indeed this process is a daunting one. Yet more daunting would be the outcome if such a process was not committed to, most especially in times of great challenge.
Standing still in the midst of great change entails unacceptable risk.
In a fast moving world, success comes through organisation … and the will to adopt progressive change. Holding back change does your country or your business no good. It only creates greater tension and greater need for change. The wave is upon us. The question is ... are we to be completely swamped or do we ride the wave and take advantage of its energy and movement? Do we create and harness the next wave? Do we achieve what we want to achieve? Or do we sit back and blame everyone else for the problems of the world? This is the same for companies as it is for countries ... most especially in times of great challenge.
And this is such a time.
Regards
JS
GLOBAL CHANGES: 10th July 2009
About two years ago, through our work, we predicted a series of events and changes about to take place, starting at around 2009 / 2010. These events and changes would start off slowly, and slowly gather momentum to create greater and greater impact. We have been watching things around the world carefully. Well, it's what we do. We take no pleasure in announcing the changes we predicted to happen - slow at first - have begun to make themselves felt. These are the water shortages within specific regions of India and China.
Make no mistake, although they will create local hardship, these events are not in themselves global disasters. However ... what they are, is the trigger for a wider cascading of change that WILL significantly impact. This begins with water shortage. It leads on to agricultural decline, hunger, (potentially disease) and population movement within the country borders - and abroad.
And as the oscillation of movement increases each year, wider areas suffer water shortages and other forms of extreme weather and crop failures and movement off the land towards already over crowded cities. And indeed, this spreads to other regions of the world as the world warms and weather patterns shift. It starts to affect different types of production. It starts to affect economies. And before you know it, those who considered themselves even amongst the strongest of the worlds economies now struggle to cope with the fundamental social and industrial changes taking place. Forget about conflict over other resources. It is the conflict over water and the massive migrations of people that will cause the conflict.
There's no stopping the sequence of events now ... but there can be a limiting of the consequences.
We are at the start of the process of change. What we do now will affect all that will happen in the future as the global environment attempts to regain some form of equilibrium, even as we continue to pressurise the environment, causing further catastrophic change.
In all honesty, from our experience, we really don't expect anyone to pay the slightest attention to what we predicted and what we said needs to be done to avert what is about to happen - at low cost. From our experience, people, companies, countries are all very good at one thing - burying their heads in the sand and pretending any problem is always someone else's problem. How wrong can they be? And so, the low cost route to alleviating disaster and continuing development will all of a sudden have to be replaced by the high cost (in every sense) of the aftermath. And in the end we will have to do what we should have done in the first place.
In a few years time when the sequence of events unfolds into massive disaster there will be many who hold their hands up and state: how could we have known? Ignorance is not bliss. Of course they could have known - we know this because we told them what was about to happen. The entire sequence of events.
How mad is that? Is there anyone out there with any sense at all? Is there any country out there at all who is interested in having a solution?
Regards
JS
LONDON 7/7 MEMORIAL: STAND TOGETHER: 7th July, 2009
For those who lost, for those who lost their lives, for those who were injured, for those who were appalled, for a city - it's people, it's hope, it's future ... and for those of us who travel on the underground ("tube") each and every day and cannot forget. It is an unfortunate fact of life that in our world - all of ours - suicide bombs from lunatics that seek only to destroy impact us all. In this war of humanity in which no humanity is shown, we all do our best to survive and dream of better things to be. We have to be better.
What strange humanity this tube does confine
when traveling down the northern line –
the fleeting glances, the distant stares,
the occasional peasant dodging fares –
the crush, the crash of cultures show
what bombs and terror can never know –
that this is a vibrancy from all over the world
where hope and life together are hurled
to survive, to grow, to cherish, to nourish
within Londons heart where dreams do flourish,
glimpsed in the faces of the silent many
who hope and who dream and who struggle each and every day
in unspoken dignity their lives refine
as their hearts abound on the northern line –
this great heartbeat of this great city,
we will always stand together.
James Stuart 2005
A UNITED STATES OF AFRICA: 3rd July 2009
Africa - a series of individual countries and hotly contested lands, all on the same continent - with massive natural resources, massive potential ... yet massive disruption, high crime and near constant regions of civil war. In spite of its promise, Africa can be a harsh place.
Africa has been in receipt of much needed aid - in various forms. This has been good and helpful ... but not when it keeps going and essentially destroys established economies. Africa needs more than this. Africa needs a dream. Africa needs a visionary who is African, who has the strength of purpose to transform the dream into reality, who can galvanise against all that undermines Africa - and make a difference.
Why? Quite separate from what has gone on in the past, without a doubt Africa as a whole continent is about to be faced by some of the most major challenges ever imaginable. These are challenges no single fragile economy can overcome. These are challenges that WILL affect all countries, all people of Africa regardless of their present divisions, the squabbling and the much reported corruption. True, all countries struggle against division, against resource sapping squabbling and the contorting spectre of corruption - yet are magnified in Africa due to the prevalence of arms and munitions and ancient, bitter rivalry.
If Africa is to make any headway in the coming generation it has to be as a single coherent unit capable of tackling that which currently undermines its sustainability, and that which certainly will. Those issues rampaging over the horizon to systematically reduce African sustainability are areas such as climate change, the brain drain, peak oil, organised crime and unsympathetic multi-nationals with the mistaken philosophy of maximising business at any cost.
Yet times are changing. The world is moving. The harsh power of some multinationals can easily be tamed. The looming financial disasters of climate change and the brain drain and peak oil can easily be overcome. All of these can take place ... if ... Africa acts as a single unit to share capability, to share resource, to share the future. Working on their own, individual countries will quickly succumb to the changes in the near future. Simply speaking, no single country has the capability to overcome the approaching challenges. Working together with a common vision and a common future, there is much more hope of survival and sustainable development.
What African leaders do now will fashion this future. Yet African leaders are not renowned for their collective action. They need a leader. Someone with a strong vision to pull them together, to speak directly to the people - and create positive change, rather than waiting for yet another disaster to happen. Lessons need to be learned.
And the remainder of the world?
The remainder of the world would do well to assist in this transition toward a United States of Africa. It is in everyones benefit that Africa stands on its own as a constructive part of a progressive world.
Who will take up this challenge? Is there anyone out there who is listening?
Regards
JS
THE NUCLEAR SPECTRE: 1st July 2009
During the prolonged period of the Cold War it
was understandable (I hate to say reasonable, because it wasn't) for major
state powers to create and build up their nuclear arsenals. It was much less
clear how India and Pakistan could afford such vast expense. This just shows
the power of fear.
Without a doubt, nuclear weapons have a special place in our collective
psyche. Nuclear weapons aren't the most destructive WMD. They are in fact
difficult, dangerous and expensive - as well as causing a complete outcry
throughout the world. Without a doubt nuclear weapons have a special
symbolism in our minds. They inspire fear and this is why they are much
sought after by those who wish to inspire fear among neighbours and enemies.
For some such weapons are testament to mans madness. For others they are a
means to bully the world. And with regard to nuclear weapons and human
behaviourisms ... this is the dangerous part.
Just when we thought it was safe to breathe a sigh of relief and attempt to
think the numbers and spread of nukes may even start to decrease ... the
petty dictators with dubious philosophies dare to drag the world towards the
brink of disaster once more.
The governments of both Iran and North Korea are governments that show such
dire disrespect to their own people - and everyone else they can think of.
They are governments and systems at the heart of which is hate and the
promise of destruction. They are pushing the world towards this promised
destruction. The Iranian government says it is pursuing nuclear energy for
"peaceful purposes" - yet everyone knows this is coded speak for creating
nuclear weapons and either handing them over to terrorists or to directly
attack other states. At least the North Koreans are honest about their
intentions to create nuclear weapons (and sell them to the highest bidder?),
not that this gives any sense of comfort.
Bearing in mind the hate and the destructive nature of these
dictatorships it is just so completely inconceivable that they are supplied
with nuclear materials by the Russians and Chinese. How mad is that? How
irresponsible is this?
Just what do they think will happen if the world is engulfed in a nuclear
mushroom cloud? Just what will happen if, for example, Israel is attacked
with nuclear weapons? What will be the effect? Will it end there? What will
be the repercussions? Will Irans neighbours actually feel safe? Who will be
next? And yes, there WILL be a next especially if in the hands of terrorists
who find cause to hate almost everyone. Bullies and blackmailers never stop
at just one event. The fact is ... the Iranian government and their
philosophy of hate will undoubtedly be safe in a deep protective bunker,
only to emerge at some later date to a scene of utter destruction - and then
proclaim the rest of the world to be demons.
I am a futurist. I don't have a crystal ball. But ... I do understand how
people behave and react and dream. The world tries not to think of disasters
or the rise of dictators. Yet the time has come to do just that. For a long
time I have been a voice of moderation and have supported dialogue and
strategic initiatives to create stability. Yet every attempt to speak and
create that mutual understanding and respect has been met with threats and
deepening division. The time
has come to realise that any appeasement of the Iranian and North Korean
governments is being seen as a definite weakness - a weakness they use to
gain time and to build their weapons. These are weapons they will use as
they attempt to bully the world and spread their vision of destruction. We
cannot allow this to happen. Neither is there any point attempting to reason
with madmen.
There will be no point saying "I told you so" after the event.
The race of man has long since had to contend with the ambitions of mad men
and bad men in many guises.
We deserve better than this.
Regards
JS
Insight through understanding. Advice you can trust.
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?
The turbulent 21st century
life isn't black and white