Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development.
Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
minimising future risk
creating sustainable advantage
creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: June 2010
THE DWINDLING SUPPLY OF FRESH WATER: 24th June 2010
We live in a world of rapid change and for the
sake of our own future we really need to be honest about some things. If we
aren't (and we haven't been), and we live in a state of denial until the
issue becomes a problem which becomes a major disaster, the cost to
countries, to people and to business will be crushing. This is precisely
what is happening with the global supply of fresh water.
For years, and yes we mean YEARS, Alt3 has been warning about the dwindling
supply of fresh water per head of population. There are a number of reasons
for the actual and impending shortages, but the fact is ... we have watched
as the adequate supply of fresh water has been transformed, as we said it
would be, from an issue to a problem and is now on the verge of a major
ongoing disaster. This major ongoing disaster will NOT be short lived. We
will NOT be able to shake our heads in a few weeks and go ... phew ... that
was a close run thing. We will very shortly in fact be shaking our heads at
the scale and scope of the disaster unfolding - and the massive impact on
every sector of society, undermining sustainability in every sense of the
word.
2010 - 2012 will be a period of significant global change due mainly to the
decreasing supply of fresh water per head of population.
It is inconceivable - INCONCEIVABLE - that constant warnings have been
ignored by otherwise sensible decision makers.
What we see now is heavy precipitation throughout many regions of the world.
Because the land has been overworked or built on, the land cannot hold the
water and so is created a series of colossal flash flood that wrecks and
destroys - and carries away fresh water required for crops and for industry
/ domestic consumption. What we see in other parts of the world are the
start of significant - and we mean significant - droughts because the
precipitation in other regions has been so heavy and virtually zero planning
has gone into the capturing of water for later use. In other regions of the
world we see the massive pollution of freshwater by unregulated industry, so
much so that much of this valuable water becomes virtually toxic downstream.
And what does this mean?
Several years ago it meant disruptive shortages of fresh water resulting in
regions of failed agriculture and diminished industry - and survival
migration towards less affected areas. We all saw it happen. Too many people
thought it would be cured through throwing money at the problem. How wrong
were they?
In the near future - the very near future - we will see something different
taking place. We will see even greater disruptive shortages of fresh water
across specific regions within the Tropics that have failed to plan ahead
for fresh water capture, causing massive agricultural decline, industry
decline, waves of migration and knock on effects such as global increases in
the cost of foodstuffs. However, what we will also see is a spreading of the
disruptive droughts north and south of the Tropics (felt mainly in the
north) into areas that have only been previously marginally touched by
diminishing fresh water.
The grain belt in the US. The population rich
southern Europe ... this region will be hit by drought and shortages as well
as an influx of new people emerging from the more stricken areas of the
world.
This is no longer someone else's problem.
The significant social upheaval and impacts from mass migration, the effects
of rising food prices, the political and industrial impacts can be estimated
and remedial action taken, but again we have to be honest about some things
- and we are fast approaching uncharted territory. Worse than this - we are
approaching uncharted territory on a ship crewed by people who can't even
see what's ahead, in some cases don't care, all with the mistaken belief it
will be all right in the end.
We as the race of humanity have undergone so many challenges and disasters.
We should know however there are some disasters that create turning points
in life ... and nothing is ever the same afterwards. The supply of fresh
water will be one such turning point. If governments and industry continues
along its present path the consequences will create a global situation that
will not be all right in the end, at least not for a very long time. It will
change the world as we know it.
Don't say we didn't tell you. Don't say we didn't offer to help governments
and business. The offer still stands ... but if the past is anything to go
by, no one will be interested and then will raise their hands in horror when
disaster strikes, and claim they couldn't see what was about to happen.
We as the race of humanity have undergone so many challenges and disasters
... but we tend to stumble from one to the other. We need to be smarter than
this.
Regards
JS
HEALTH INSURANCE: 17th June 2010
Without a doubt, the provision of healthcare paid for by insurance is a major route for the delivery of healthcare. Rightly or wrongly, this is set to increase dramatically, as the cost of healthcare increases, as the population increases, as demand increases ... and public health systems crack beneath the strain of cost effective delivery.
Private healthcare insurance will increasingly fill the gap.
However, one of the main barriers to the further spreading of private health insurance is the cost. Increasingly companies are being expected to pay for this as part of the overall salary package of an individual. Increasingly, as general costs rise, personal private medical insurance is out of reach to the individual. This is a further gap in the market - people who want PMI but just can't afford it or can't justify the cost when there are so many other competing pressures. And make no mistake, these other competing pressures will increase over the next few years and the global economy re-aligns.
Also, make no mistake, the fact that some public health systems are increasingly failing to deliver what they promise combined with the increasing number of people who cannot afford PMI will mean an overall decrease in the effective provision of healthcare - regardless of where the population is.
So ... why is PMI so expensive? Why can't there be a low cost and effective PMI to cater for this widening gap in the market?
Is it company profit?
Is it the actual cost of healthcare and the high salaries of doctors or the cost of medication / treatment?
Is it a high number of claims in relation to members?
Well ... the above factors are naturally a part of the problem but by no means the most major one. The most major factor is a hidden one, and one most PMI companies will rarely admit to. Most PMI companies have chaotic internal organisation that leads to:
- high costs (back office systems, transactional activity, silo management and poor information sharing resulting in high risk, re-inventing the wheel)
- low level of innovation
- low level of information based business intelligence
In an increasingly commercial and changing world PMI companies will increase their profit, struggling to gain a greater market share and inputting a great level of resources into up front revenue generation. They know, as we all do, that balancing the books does not just mean trying to earn more money. A large part of the equation comes from cutting costs and becoming more effective at managing our budgets. Running to stand still, earning more money while your costs proportionally increase does not lead to a higher profitability. This is a basic in business.
From experience, it is very, very clear what these companies need to do to increase their profitability, to increase their impact and consequently increase healthcare provision. This is about creating a sustainable commercial advantage. It's about breaking out of the old ways of working and seeing the world as it really is. This is about working smarter, not harder.
However, also from experience, many of these companies also carry with them a high degree of arrogance. They often have the mistaken belief that they will survive and develop simply because of who they are and they've been in the market for so long. Senior managers in the business areas of these companies can often be heard to state: "We are the experts. You can't tell us anything.". Massively big mistake. The world is changing. One day the dinosaurs ruled ... next day they didn't. These days business survival and progression isn't about how large a monolith company is ... it's about the fast beating the slow. The slower you are, the higher internal costs you carry with you, the less flexible and responsive you will be to the required changes - and your market share will be eroded.
Evolution isn't about survival of the strongest. It's about the survival and development of those with the greatest responsiveness to change, and who can harness that change to create benefit.
Regards
JS
Insight through understanding. Advice you can trust.
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?
The turbulent 21st century
life isn't black and white