Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development.
Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
minimising future risk
creating sustainable advantage
creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: March 2009
INDIA AND CHINA - CLARIFICATION: 25th March, 2009
I've been asked to clarify the February post "A Critical Breaking Point" regarding regions of the world that will experience even greater fundamental change in the next 18-24 months that we can envisage today - an where this change will first be felt, then will increase rapidly.
China and India.
Many regions of the world will start to feel what will be transformational change, and will soon afterwards become runaway change will little scope for control, but India and China is where it will have the greatest immediate effect.
Both industry and service based economies have been growing strongly. This is obvious to everyone. However, factors that are less obvious and for some strange reason have been largely ignored is the fragility of these economies to sudden changes. The sudden changes I have in mind are not only originating from the current global financial situation, although this is indeed a major factor. But there are a number of underlying factors such as population shift away from the land and the production of food, biofuels, service and production based economies reliant on export (in the widest sense, including outsourcing), the availability of fresh water in agricultural areas and the first tangible effects of global warming.
2007 world trade increased by 7%
2008 world trade increased by 2%
2009 world trade is expected to decrease by 9%
So ... as the massive populations of India and China have been helping to drive their previous economic boom, partially migrating from the land and the traditional production of food, cities have been filling fast. Many of these people have been subsidising their families in the countryside. This means with the flow of people into the cities there are less people to produce food - and less willing to produce large amounts of food due to the city based family subsidies. It also means, on a smaller but just as critical scale, once the price of oil begins to increase to the pain threshold once more, food crops will also be shifted to cash biofuel crops. The price of oil WILL increase. It means that as world trade declines, so will decline the ability to support large numbers of people in the productive cities.
Many of these people do not want to return to a rural farming life. Combined with this is the decreasing ability to grow food due to decreasing water supplies. What happens if suddenly there is large scale city unemployment?
For example it is widely stated that China needs a 7% growth to sustain its population. There are now predictions that China's growth will decrease to 6.5% - beneath the level required to sustain its population. Personally I think the 6.5% figure is being too cautious. It is more likely that growth will decrease to 6% ... or lower. There are a number of very real and intricate reasons for this.
What this means for China - and for India as it will run partially in parallel - is that there will be a population unemployed in cities, unwilling to return to the land, with a decreasing food production due to a range of factors.
There will be unrest. There will be a gradual and then a massive flow of people out of the country, starting with those who are most able. This will mean an outward flow of skill and ability, further undermining the resources of China and India.
Guess what will happen then? The above points are already starting to unfold. There are a number of ways to counteract these points and so avoid the unwanted consequences ... but let's be honest, is anyone interested? Experience tells me people only see what is around them. Rarely are they interested in what is happening 2 or 3 steps ahead - and are surprised when the "unseen" dangers suddenly appear. This is the reason the world is in such a mess. And still lessons are not being learned.
Is this clarification enough?
Regards
JS
IRAN - WIND OF CHANGE OR LOST OPPORTUNITY?: 18th March, 2009
Although I've never been there (they might possibly frown on me being there), one of the most intriguing places in the world surely must be Iran. Think about it. Iran is a rich and ancient civilisation. It's population is highly educated and cultured. It's business people are astute and sharp. And ... let's face it ... Iranian women are quite beautiful in that timeless alluring manner. Iran has great cities, a wealth of ancient monuments, wide deserts, high mountains, has been the route of east-west traders since, well, since trade began.
And yet ... and yet ... yes, you just know what I'm going to say, don' t you?
And yet, for the past several years in spite of that brief glimmer of hope just after the beginning of the new millennium, the government of Iran has created and followed quite disastrous domestic policies that have caused hardship, squandered finite resources and brought down the most severe of punishments onto its population. And highly damaging to the prospects and image of the country has been the even more disastrous foreign policy leading to restriction, wide condemnation and isolation. These are foreign policies that have caused massive and deadly instability throughout the region. And in spite of all its rich tapestry of culture and future promise, all the world sees of Iran are orchestrated mobs burning flags, chanting extremist slogans. All the world sees are images of missiles launching with the implied threat of warfare, nuclear or not.
The Iranian people deserve better than this, surely?
True, they have perceived themselves to be faced by US invasion, but to be honest, at that time, the implied threats by the then US government were not wise, were not helpful - and certainly unrealistic considering the conditions elsewhere.
And so here we are. Iran is about to vote on a new government. This is THE moment of truth for the entire country. Will they vote for the same old, same old extremism, rhetoric and divisiveness as has hampered them for the past few years? Or will they realise the world has changed since the last time they voted and now can see the benefit of being a productive and valued part of the greater world? The choice is of course theirs - as it should be. No external country should even think of interfering.
From my own view as a keen observer of a whole range of impacts stemming directly from regional instability, my own opinion is that Iran has to change. Presently it is teetering on stagnation and that is not a good thing. Iran has to get its economy back on track. And the only way to do that is to once more become that productive and valued part of the greater world. No country can ever achieve stability, growth and development by deliberately being isolationist or by being extremist. The world doesn't want this and so will engage in as little business as possible with the offending country. And as for exporting religion? What better way to cause instability? But then again ... this is an age old mechanism of some governments clinging on to power at any cost. They gain power through mayhem and chaos. They gain power through creating perceived threat. They gain power by severely restricting the traditional freedoms of their own population.
This has happened in many ages in history. It continues to happen in many areas of the world. There were many who stated this was exactly what was happening in the US before regime change there. And that's the point. If the people of the US can change their government because they don't like the policies ... why can't the people of Iran do the same?
Do it for yourselves. Do it for your children. Do it for the wider world. Do it for everyones benefit.
Iran - come out of the darkness. The world needs this greater stability to grow and to develop. Contribute. Develop. Establish your voice once more. The world is not full of demons ready to leap out and steal what you have. The world is full of people who want to progress. Unfortunately for us ... there are also those who are fearful of progression and so try by any means possible to halt progression, to restrict communication, to cause fear and uncertainty, and drag us back into the "dark ages".
You deserve better than this. We all deserve better than this. Take this offer and small step by small step we shall all progress ... together.
Regards
JS
A REMARKABLE THING: 14th March, 2009
Flying from a business location in a warm
country back to the wet and windy UK is always an experience. Take yesterday
for example (Friday the 13th of all dates). I flew from Madrid to London. I
noticed quite strongly, from the vantage point high in the sky, just how
parched the Spanish countryside was, how flat in some places, yet in others
undulating in rhythm, building to great mountains ... yet all with something
in common, their desperate need for water. Truly it must be much worse in
many other areas of the world, but as no one has invited to me to those
areas of the world, I only have research to go on.
The need for water is great. In the next 5-10 years, the need for water will become intense - so much so that in some regions of the world will be THE deciding factor directly relating to viability. The thing is ... just who is taking this grave issue seriously? Not many governments it would seem. They can hide the rising problem under the proverbial carpet as much as they like - but the problem of fresh water supply isn't exactly going to to away, is it? In reality because of a number of factors... it's going to become worse. In reality the supply of fresh water is set to become the one focal point to define overall regional commercial viability and economic sustainability
But who really is taking the situation seriously?
Many are saying fine words. So few are doing things more than speaking such fine words.
Flying from Madrid to London was a remarkable thing ... if one cared to notice, although many were asleep - a true and honest testament to the current understanding of mankind.
From the ground, Spain was clear, confident, ambitious. The people were open and friendly, and refreshingly professional. From the air, Spain seemed parched, dry, with a light dusting of rural villages to break the ripples of tectonic plate and erosion induced land. Once past the snow capped Pyrenees and over the Bay of Biscay, the flight plan took me over the north Atlantic but still very much in sight of land - and indeed, that land was France. From my vantage point this seemed more lush and fertile than the baked land of Spain (although I may have been wrong and it just seemed that way from several thousand feet in the air), with a greater concentration of towns and villages, especially around the coast. The long sweeping arcs of beach sand were pleasurable to behold.
From Spain through to France all was encased in brilliant sunlight.
And then across the great curves of headland that is northern France, heading northward to the UK. Strange as it is, as soon as we flew over the VERY first UK coastline, making out those famous white cliffs that took tens of millions of years to produce and then rise up from the seas, cloud began to form. Within a short space of time, really, as soon as we reached the UK, there was thick grey cloud. All else in the world seemed encased in sunlight ... but not the UK. Oh no. But those of us who live here know that already, don't we?
On the coast, through the cracks in the cloud cover could be seen dense conurbations. These were not the sparse villages of Spain or the distinct towns of coastal France. In the UK these were blossoming cities bustling with people and activity, a haven for a quite incredible combination of the worlds far flung population in every shape, guise and culture - all there to make a better life for their families ... just made out beneath the cloud cover ... along with fields of bright green, vibrant, alive, productive. As we swept away from the coast, the cloud cover became too great to see through as if to shield either ourselves or the land beneath in a definite shroud of secrecy, of tempting curiosity and adventure.
And then, as the engines decreased their drone, we dropped through the layer of cloud to emerge over London. Quite the opposite to the pace and scenery of pleasant Spain and France, London was a stark industrial and vast residential landscape. Yet ... with a vibrancy and life no credit crunch could squeeze. And to my surprise the many non-UK people on the flight seemed genuinely excited to be approaching Heathrow. To be honest, I couldn't understand why. After the colour of Spain, London seemed ... well, grey beneath the cloud.
But ... that was the point, wasn't it?
We all take for granted that which we know so
well - whether this be personal relationships or entire countries. And in
many cases this indeed leads to our downfall. After all no one or no thing
wants to be taken for granted. Places like London have a lot going for them.
They are the hubs of global activity - the power houses of commerce and
global integration. It's easy to be swayed by people denigrating such
cities. Forget about these people. If they were to be believed then for sure
the world would be at an end. Yet we know it isn't.
It is only when we look beneath the surface do we recognise that which is wonderful and worthwhile - that which is worth understanding, protecting ... and in some instances, worth fighting for against the parasites who seek only to destroy for their own ends.
Without a doubt we take too much for granted. And unless we realise how important some areas of life actually are ... we are bound to lose them forever. It's a bit like coming back to London. Previously I had mainly seen the harshness of city life combined with the even greater harshness of the credit crunch financial hardship. Yet now ... because of the interest of those who were anonymous foreigners to me ... I could see London for what it was - a lively place, full of entrepreneurial spirit, full of hope in spite of the doom and gloom predictions. It is places like this that will spur on the global economy. The world needs London.
This is something none of us should take for granted. I have no doubt your city, your country has as much to offer. Think about it. It is worthwhile seeing through the surrounding gloom to once more re-acquaint ourselves with that which is ... special. In a world of unremitting pressures we need to see more often the bright light of hope. We who are better than the destructive parasites have to believe in something better than the grey skies, we need the dream, we need to understand the grass is not always greener on the other side ... and work towards creating the reality of that something better ... together.
No one will do it for us. In the darkness and in the gloom we need to find one another. And we need to band together whomsoever we may be, where ever in the world we may be, to work unceasingly towards a greater future.
Regards
JS.
INNOVATION IN ACTION: 11th March, 2009
Sitting in Heathrow Airport waiting for my flight to a distant land and another business meeting, I can't help thinking about the vast expense it takes to expand airports, as well as the very real public concern over lost land, lost villages, increased traffic, increased noise, increased carbon output.
The fact that airports are still being created and expanded simply shows the lack of awareness of many companies - as well as the lack of awareness, foresight and understanding of innovation from many governments.
Sitting here in one of the worlds major airports ... the entire argument over airport expansion is all quite incredible to me. Why can't people see what's happening? Why can't people see beyond the end of their noses and understand how the world is developing? Stupid questions, let's face it. Rarely can they understand how the future is developing, hence the main reason the world is in a bit of a mess - and hence the main reason I'm employed ... and why airport expansion is still being discussed.
The fact is ... the world is changing, technology is changing, how people and businesses use technology is changing. The technology is here to allow people at the opposite sides of the world to seem as if they are sitting in the same room, to communicate, to share information, to increase globalisation, to enhance business. The technology is here. It is extremely effective ... and is about to become even better. This technology is called Telepresence. It is about to also become much less expensive.
Recent history shows that when a worthwhile technology becomes less expensive, it becomes more widespread. This is the technology that in a few years will largely negate the "predicted" rise in business travel.
And the great benefits of Telepresence? Because the "contact" and face to face communication is so real it effectively reduces the need for many, many business journeys to far off places in the world. And what will this achieve? For business, it achieves SIGNIFICANT cost savings, not only on the cost of flights, but also in hotels, etc. It means greater productivity from staff. This mounts up to being a lot of money. For outside of the business, it means SIGNIFICANT drops in carbon output, it means a far more healthy work-life balance of those who have to get up early in the morning to go to the airport and not return to their families for days. The technology is here to make this happen and yet still busy and stressed execs are jumping on planes, still there is limited exchange of information, still companies are using up valuable resources by allowing this to happen.
Of course, Telepresence won't negate ALL business flights as it won't negate ALL business meetings (my present one, for example) - but it will reduce business travel by a large amount.
And so, while some in the world are busy arguing about airport expansion, while some are wondering how they are going to pay for it, while some businesses are blissfully unaware of the developments taking place that can save them literally vast amounts of money, the rest of the world is moving far ahead, leaving those who want to dwell in the past ... in the past. The world is moving forward without them. It won't be long before the Telepresence technology filters along from the large companies to those less large. To be honest, it won't be long after that, that the business driven innovation reaches the home.
Innovation in action. There's a lot of it happening. And just like most other innovations, it's beneath the radar of those companies and organisations who have virtually no visibility of what's going on. And they expect to survive in a fast moving world?
Regards
JS
SOMETHING MISSING: 6th March, 2009
Is it me ... or is something quite significant increasingly missing from the world? Is something being lost and we haven't even noticed its passing? I looked out at the night sky this evening to see the stars shine so brightly, to feel the vastness of the universe ... yet to feel the loss. It wasn't good.
Please believe me, I never do hark back for "the good old days". The good old days rarely were the good old days. The good old days were often harsh and hard - much like these days. Some things never change. It is always difficult.
No, but this is different. These days there is definitely something missing. But what is it that is increasingly missing? Is it something small and unimportant as has happened many times before as life transforms and evolves? Or is it small and important the like of which few notice but yet mourn at its passing?
Tiny piece by tiny piece that which is extremely important is being chipped away. I don't know, perhaps it IS me. Perhaps it IS because on a daily basis I investigate uncertainty both on a global / international basis, and on a business basis. Whatever has been lost is irrevocably linked to the current financial crisis and the absolute tsunami of dramatically bad news bombarding people from every level of the mass media.
It is all just too much.
Without a doubt much of the blame for the current economic crisis MUST fall firmly onto the shoulders of the media. They love scare stories, don't they? They love to inspire fear and concern. It's what sells ... and they are in business to sell. Let's face it, most of the recent stock market decline has been due to a distinct lack of confidence. A lack of confidence inspired by revenue hungry media which likes nothing more than unsightly chaos. Shame on them.
But ... the problem is ... after long months of constant stories of harshness and decline, it is syphoning into the psyche of the mass of public. Piece by tiny piece that which is extremely important is being chipped away by a media industry bent on short term gain, yet feeding on the bones of the banking industry and other commercial sectors whom themselves first did sow the seeds of uncertainty because of their fixation with short term gain.
The world has gone mad and yes in its passing is indeed losing something extremely important. And that something important is hope.
People are losing hope. I see it in their faces. In this war of attrition with the sensationalist media, people are starting to believe what the media tell them - that the world is crumbling, that there is no hope. I see this when I look around. It is an incredibly sad thing to see and to recognise. It is also very, very wrong. The world is not in a freefall to doom.
Yet bombarded by the media screaming about chaos and disaster isn't something small and imperceptible. It is something important. This goes deep. I know you are reading this and can understand the change taking place. And yes, hope will return - but it will take time. And in the meantime the power of the irresponsible media will take its toll. And in the meantime untold damage will be done to lives, to industries, to something far more important at the core of what makes us human.
Will someone deliver us from this truly irresponsible vampire behaviour sucking the lifeblood out of us? How much more media induced desolation can we endure? This is not what our forefathers and ancestors struggled with life and death over untold challenges and heartache for. The power of the printed word and the need to sell airtime? Come on. Surely we are better than this?
But then ... perhaps this is just me? Or does anyone else out there in the great void of the unknown feel the same? Let me know what you think, please. Stars shine best in darkness, yet even better when together, their combined grandness and wonder dispelling the light, dancing for all to see, for future generations to stand in awe and gaze upon. We need to know we are not alone and surrounded by more than gloom.
Does this ring true? Or is it just me? Let me know each of us is not alone, howling at the full moon in hopeless, pointless song. Someone, somewhere must hear. Let us all know there is more than hopelessness, let us know there is a bright tomorrow as important as those we cling on to, together in the cold dark, sharing light, sharing warmth. Let us know not all that is important has departed the world of man. Do we glisten like starlight or do we wail with the emptiness of night. We are not gods. We are not giants. We are merely people - and there are some things we just need to know.
We've had enough to the horrific disaster stories undermining what is left of global confidence, feeding on themselves.
Regards
JS
HEROES AND VILLAINS:
3rd March, 2009
In our world, in every land, amongst every people, throughout every age of history and certainly in the present, we have heroes and villains. And let’s face it – heroes need villains far more than villains need heroes. And also let’s face it – many societies have in some way an implicit or explicit worship of heroes. Heroes are honoured. Villains are shunned. Heroes are given great power in the mind of the public. Villains are something to fear and to be wary of. This is a highly structured dichotomy in the nature of most societies.
And yet … the way the world really is, is rarely pure black and white. But of course, the public (and most decision makers) are not presented with the myriad of shades of grey. They are presented with the “black and white” case. These are the heroes, these are the villains – you are either with us (the heroes), or you are with them (the villains). The trouble is ... villains sometimes masquerade as heroes.
And so, throughout the age of mankind, and certainly into the present, it is all too easy to pick a target, to present “evidence” of villainous behaviour and present oneself as the hero ready to make a stand against the villains.
Is this recognisable?
Sometimes the threat is real. Most of the time it isn’t. And when it isn’t, but presented as being real, it is clearly a manufactured threat for the purpose of demonising a people or a nation state, to create a crisis, to create the illusion of threat and galvanise people behind the “hero” figure all too ready to make a stand and do “what is right”.
Honestly, is this more recognisable now?
And so, the unscrupulous political, religious
or social leader – or just the plain insane – creates, maintains and
increases power through the manufactured process of hate and fear and
threat. Even if the threat isn’t real, the hate and the fear produced
certainly become real – real enough to cause otherwise sane and rational
people to hand over all power to the insane and the irrational, real enough
to distract from the many mistakes and inhumanities caused by the leaders of
hate to severely distort global dynamics, trade, finance, communication and
the future, in the guise of being heroes.
I see a lot of evidence for this in many areas of the world. In some regions the media screams pure hate against the manufactured threat of another people. The weak national leader needs hate in order to manipulate and to destabilise. The smart national leader will reach beyond this to create communication, to create understanding … and financial stability.
The world will always have its heroes and villains. But sometimes, just sometimes, the hero is the one who talks rather than screams, someone who offers the hand of friendship rather than the one who starts shooting at the first shadow that appears. And so when you look around ... why are there so few heroes? Why are there so many villains masquerading as heroes? Why is the world in such turmoil? Because this is real life and in this day and age too few good people are willing to stand and be recognised as being heroes. If there is any time the world needs heroes, for sure it is now ... especially in light of yet more extremist events caused by people consumed by hatred and bent only on destruction, seeded by those preachers and politicians of hate.
Regards
JS
Insight through understanding. Advice you can trust.
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?
The turbulent 21st century
life isn't black and white