Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development.
Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
minimising future risk
creating sustainable advantage
creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: March 2010
THE CONSEQUENCES OF RISING ENERGY COSTS: 17th March, 2010
From an in-depth understanding of how the world is developing, of how many factors are interconnected, related and to a large extend dependant, we at Alt3 create what we believe to be a valuable insight into how the world is developing. We've been doing this for some time and, to be honest, we have been proven to be right on many, many occasions. We're not here to say "we told you so", but rather, to say "take seriously" the fundamental changes taking place that will affect every country, every business, every person.
This is knowledge you as a business need. It is leading edge strategic development.
A good example of this is oil. For approximately two years we have been sending out reports on the impending economic consequences of rising fuel costs. In keeping with many of our other assessments, we can clearly see those economic consequences of rising fuel costs about to impact. Make no mistake, this will soon start to undermine the fragile global economic recovery. Within 12 months this will be a serious impact and ... this will be a long impact. It isn't something that's going to go away within a short period of time. Therefore it is something we will have to live with and find a way around.
The trouble with the assessments we make, and one of the more predictable factors of human nature, is that we know - we just know - many people read what we write and secretly they think ... hmm ... this will be someone else's problem. It won't affect me. I'll be alright.
Honestly, this is something we have to struggle against quite often. And yet, time and time again what we say comes true - and we can hear the major decision makers coming out with the same words on every occasion - "we didn't know this was going to happen. It's a complete surprise. How could we have known?" Well ... you did know because we told you and we know we were right.
It's the same with the cost of fuel. It's a strange thing that at the moment the price of oil is approximately 2/3rds of what it was about a year ago - and yet the price of transport fuel is the same as it was then - and this time, the price of transport fuel will increase beyond what it had been. There are a number of reasons why this is so - but still it will happen and this is why it will impact the economic recovery and in not such a great length of time will seriously undermine the sustainability of a number of exposed regions of the world.
It's better late than never. Today we see across the world a number of energy developments taking place. The latest was the recent announcement of tidal and wave power development in the north of Scotland which will take 10 years to produce enough electricity for 750 000 homes. Across the world we see massive wind and solar power developments. These, and others, are good things to happen. Although, at present, they are only a fraction of what is and will be required - it's a start and in time the pace of development will increase. Well, it will have to, won't it?
While this type of development is very much required for national, regional and global progression (and is an essential for business) - and an investors dream come true - these are essentially for non mobile sources of energy need. They are for homes, offices, factories and labs. They are for computers and networks and lights and warmth. It isn't for transport. This is the major hole in the equation.
Business needs transport. Countries need cost effective transport. A progressing world needs transport. Without it many aspects simply grind to a halt. True, in a few years there will be many more electric cars. But cars aren't trucks, and trains and their tracks are hugely expensive to build. And anyway, with all the energy required for those homes and offices and factories and labs ... to add the extra and substantial burden of electric vehicles into the mix will mean the current growth in renewable energy sources will have to increase exponentially ... which, let's be honest, is unlikely.
Therefore what we are faced with is increasing energy costs on all levels, with transport costs increasing the most. This is what will start to impact the economic recovery and any development plans for any businesses. This is why it isn't someone else's problem. And ... we are putting this in writing so you who are the decision makers know. You can't hide behind the ostrich philosophy of "we didn't know it was going to happen. No one told us.".
The facts are as we've said. They are unavoidable. They are going to happen. It is too late in the cycle to avoid the consequences.
However ... there are things that can be done to (a) protect your business, and (b) to develop your business so you create and maintain that all important sustainable commercial advantage. This is the same for all businesses, in all sectors, regardless of who you are, where you are, what you trade in. Without it you are in for a difficult time - everyone will be. But ... those who do well and prosper will be those with the insight we can give them, and their own courage to take action now to develop in the near future. This is strategic development at its sharpest.
And the simple fact is ... if business progresses then national economies progress and individuals increase their standard of living. Governments need to do more to ensure the future development of their economies. It is very clear what needs to be achieved therefore in true strategic development style, it is very clear what needs to be done to achieve those specific goals. Stop blurring the issue and get on with what you should be doing. You should be in the job of making things better - we all should. Don't you dare say we didn't tell you. Not this time.
Regards
JS
ONE GOOD MAN: 3rd March, 2010
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Edmund Burke 1729-1797.
Yesterday Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, a former Pakistani lawmaker and a leading scholar of Islam made a stand. He issued a Fatwa declaring the ungodliness of the violent extremism perpetrated by those who claim to be Muslim, or as some others would readily say - use Islam as an excuse to create mass murder and the violent suppression of their own people.
Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri has made a stand.
One good man among many - with the many at last, after long years in the wilderness not daring to speak, now finding a voice - and that voice beginning to be raised, beginning to be heard over the screams of hatred and blood of those who previously claimed to speak for Islam.
For years the Muslim community in the UK have felt themselves disempowered - caught between a culture that seemed to alienate them because of the deeds of others, and a growing culture of hatred that claimed to speak for them ... but didn't. And now, after so long, after so much anguish and harm and lost lives, the voice of reason is starting at last to shine through. All it takes is one light to shine in the deepest night for this night to be dispelled - and throughout the world it is indeed time to dispel the dark night created by the violent extremists infamous for their inhumanity. It is a night in which the demons created and in which the demons prowl to perpetuate the hell of their own making. And where one light does shine to dispel the night, so others will follow to show there is a valid and valuable alternative to the darkness and demonic depths so screamed about by the preachers of hate.
At last.
Now we can all start to build a better world - together.
Does anyone seriously believe the Taliban want to build a better world? Ask their victims in their own land and also ask those affected by the heroin trade whose funds go the weaponisation of the Taliban and other violent extremists. Does anyone seriously believe Al-Qaeda want to build a better world? By continuously committing mass murder? It's time we turned away from the horrors of the past to create a better world - together. It is time we put a stop to children being brainwashed into being the suicide bomb generation. It is time we developed the stability so required for business and social development.
It is time we reached forward for what we wanted to achieve - together.
The Muslim community in the UK have found their voice and it is the voice of reason, just as we who are here are reasonable people. And between reasonable people there is much common ground. We all want the same things. We have more similarities than differences and we each have our extremists to contend with. The tide is turning yet with still a long way to go. Yet from now on, where ever we go we will go together.
If this can happen in the fractured society of the UK, it can happen anywhere ... and it needs to.
Regards
JS
WHY INNOVATION FAILS: 1st March, 2010
Heavily involved in business culture change to create sustainable competitive advantage, as we are, three things are evident:
1. innovation is required to stay ahead of the curve, and is widely recognised as being required.
2. the world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. There is a lot of innovation coming on stream - competition is heating up.
3. many, many organisations fall by the wayside and are overtaken because they are unable to harness innovation and so continue with high costs in an eroding market.
This is a sense of frustration to all of us. I mean ... they all admit what is needed and yet ... and yet ... can't quite bring themselves to embrace the culture change required to maintain their organisational effectiveness and customer relevance. And yes, these are organisations who are usually highly silo managed, with a high level of corporate politics and empire retention - therefore risk averse and "business as usual".
This is why innovation fails ... in these companies. And all the time they scratch their heads as they watch their markets decline and their costs increase. Being innovative does not mean needing to be at the leading edge of R&D. You can also be a fast follower - and take advantage of what's already out there ... and adapt.
It's all about awareness and flexibility. If you can't see what's coming along the road, how can you ever expect to avoid a crash? The sad fact is ... some companies actually can see exactly what's coming along the road but continue to drive straight towards it ... and crash. We see it often - and we have to go in and pick up the pieces.
How and why an innovation culture works:
- interaction is a natural state - people will interact. Restrictions on interaction leads to the feeling of being isolated, not listened to, not valued, not being a productive part in the overall organisation
- the greatest level of innovation emerges from areas of high interaction
- areas of "society" such as cities, workplaces, etc.
- web (including social media)
- collaboration needs to be focused and an initial framework provided to create the reason to collaborate. The remainder should be unstructured to allow the grass roots free flow of new hotspots of collaborative development (people will find their own reasons to collaborate within a framework, driven by interaction and interest)
- interaction and collaboration enhances and inspires natural intelligence (intelligent working - working smarter, not harder)
- this leads to new ideas relating to areas of specific concern to the environment of the intelligence
- the forward momentum of innovation is created from the groundswell of ideas which often feedback into interaction, either as a means for new interaction or as a source of discussion and opening up of new paths of thought.
This is the feedback mechanism that has driven progression and development for thousands of years. It's how people work. ALL organisations that create and harness an innovation culture make use of this mechanism. ALL organisations who are not innovative or do not have an innovative culture restrict the above mechanism and stop people from working smarter. This latter results in high turn over of staff, high costs and risks of constantly re-inventing the wheel and the noticeably falling behind the commercial leading edge.
This is why innovation fails. It fails because some companies:
- restrict interaction through silo management or high levels of corporate politics and bureaucracy
- this diminishes collaboration
- that dulls the intelligence so people have jobs, not careers, and invariably see themselves working for money rather than for success
- they have very little input into any ideas - because why should they?
- which feeds straight into pure innovation
Likewise, in such situations, even although the world is awash with innovation in all forms and types, people in the above examples of companies will rarely look externally to see what's happening, or to harness the changes taking place.
This is why innovation fails ... and in our highly dynamic, increasingly competitive world ... why some companies fail - and don't seem to listen what we've said to them. Oh well, I hate to say I told you so, but ...
Regards
JS
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