Alt3: Insight through understanding. Creating sustainable advantage. Leading edge development.
Dynamic strategic development in a time of great change
minimising future risk
creating sustainable advantage
creating opportunity
PREVIOUS MONTHS: September 2009
OPEN INVITATION TO THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT: 22nd September, 2009
This is an open invitation to the government of the Peoples Republic of China.
I have twice attempted communication with your embassy in London - neither time with any success. It is my sincere hope this new and direct approach will meet with a more satisfactory outcome. It would be flattering to believe some areas of your government would know who I am ... but I may be wrong.
For some years I have been heavily involved in the determination of future trends, of how the world is moving and developing, and how it will be several years in advance. This is vital knowledge to create sustainable advantage.
The world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. China is set to be at the forefront of this era of significant and fundamental transformation in terms of water availability, agricultural production, national output and population shift. China - more than most countries in the world - will experience the approaching significant and fundamental transformation first hand. Without a doubt there will be challenges, there will be evident dangers and there will be potential rewards. I would hope China will be in a position to meet these challenges and reap the rewards.
I would also like to be in a position to witness the transformation.
With the permission of the Chinese government I would like to journey from the great cities in the east, through the heart of the agricultural areas in the centre, to the western desert - experiencing the China few people of the western world would ever recognise. To many in the west, China remains a place of mystery and intrigue. This journey will not lessen the magic but it will increase the understanding. In todays world, this is a good thing. The journey will entail a daily video log of encounters and experiences and discoveries. In exchange for permission to travel - and the much needed transport and skills of a guide - I would be more than happy for the daily video log and any other communications to be scrutinised by representatives of the Chinese government to ensure Chinese culture and people are viewed in the best possible light.
We have an ideal opportunity to experience and record that which should not be lost. A glimpse in time perhaps, before the changes taking place fundamentally alter Chinese culture. This journey will take anywhere between one and three months.
So, to the Chinese government - is it possible to have your permission to engage in this activity?
I look forward to hearing from you.
Warmest regards
JS
THE GREATEST THREAT: 8th September, 2009
We live in a global society. An event in one area invariably sends ripples of repercussion out into most other areas. One of the greatest benefits to this, our global society, is our ability to harness change for the better. All throughout history we have had to defeat ignorance and mayhem designed by those who would hold us back and use conflict as a means towards their own personal power. It's been difficult and we're still doing it, yet history shows we've achieved this many times in the past and so now, today, should not be dissauded by the worthwhile nature of the task ahead.
So ... ahead of us just what will be the greatest threat the world will have to contend with in 3-5 years?
Will it be climate change and global warming?
Will it be another global financial meltdown?
Will it be a pandemic to rage through the population?
Will it be a massive energy crisis when peak oil starts to erode sustainability?
Will it be a giant asteroid hurtling through the darkness of space?
Will it be the reduction in fresh water availability and reduction in crop growth?
All of the above are real dangers - some more so than others. All of the above will at some point play a significant part in the development of the future, demanding concerted international action. However, as the above are very real and potentially catastrophic the opinion of Alt3 is that they are not the greatest danger the world will have to contend with within 3-5 years.
The greatest danger is by far even more distasteful, inhuman and insane than all of the above combined.
The current extremist regime of Iran which can no longer lay claim to any form of democracy has a long history of "distraction politics". That is, blaming everyone else for its own failed policies, pointing at shadowy external interference, and by funding specific terrorist groups ratcheting up the international pressure through conflict, again distracting from their own internal failures.
The Iranian government is once more about to covertly continue with their programme of nuclear weaponisation. At a best guess, within 2 years Iran will have nuclear weapons. They look at what is happening in North Korea, they look at the completely disjointed international response to their own programme and they say to themselves ... keep everyone talking and hoping for a deal while we develop nuclear weapons. Play for time. Within 2 years they will have nuclear weapons. Within 3 years one or more of these weapons will be in the hands of Iranian sponsored terrorists with well known targets either in the Middle East or in the west. And so if nuclear conflict suddenly erupts the Iranian government will hold its hands up to deny liability. The true nature of extremism. Extremists don't care who or how many they kill or in what manner they kill, or what they destroy - they simply want to destroy everything and everyone. This is true madness.
On the other hand if the US or Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will demand that the world condemns the aggressors for an unwarranted attack - and will whip up a frenzy of anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment to spread extremism even further.
On the surface the greatest threat to the world as we know it may well seem to be something like global warming. Yet beneath the surface, like the proverbial ice berg, is a far greater destructive power - and that power today is the Iranian nuclear weapons programme - the real, soon to be tangible weapons of mass destruction. Make no mistake, these weapons will be used. They will not be there for show. They will not be there for defence. They are on their way. This is not "nuclear research".
It is ironic therefore, that the nuclear programme is partially aided by Russian and Chinese skills - both of whom have their own issues with extremists. It would be even more ironic - and just as unwanted - if an Iranian nuclear weapon was to find its way into the hands of these others.
Dangerous times are being created by extremists and the failure of the international community to effectively combat these extremists. What will this mean for the different people around the world? What will this mean for the global economic outlook? What will this mean for financial stability, for growth, for development, for jobs, for your company, for your products / services, for the future of our children?
In all honesty ... we hope we are wrong but so far ... we've been right all along. It's a chilling realisation, one we fully expect the world to take absolutely no notice of ... until it is too late.
Regards
JS
AN EXPERIMENT: 5th September, 2009
Over the years, we at Alt3 have acquired a lot of knowledge of social dynamics and how the world will be in 3-5 years. On one hand, it is good to have knowledge. On the other hand, some of this knowledge can be quite ... alarming. Regardless of this, it is still knowledge. And where most of the world tends to bury its head in the sand and pretend problems will go away if ignored, in reality the problems often only become worse if ignored.
Hence the need for our expertise.
As the pace of change increases throughout the world it is clear increasing numbers of people feel "left behind" or "left out". The reasons are varied and complex yet the consequences are nearly always the same - tension rises in almost every society and between societies as people increasingly turn to more extreme means for answers, for comfort even, for a sense of belonging. People are tribal. Identity is important. One of these other at times extreme means is religion. Religious extremism is on the rise and is set to become a major problem for the entire world with the potential of severely undermining any global financial and social sustainability. Trust me, this is true.
However, we are all mostly aware of the religious extremism of the Middle East and beyond where this culture touches upon other cultures and the sheer barbarism this entails. Although this is set to increase - and with devastating consequences in the next few years - this is not the only religious extremism in the world. It is easy to demonise one group while ignoring the issues and problems of another.
We started thinking ... how close to the edge of barbarism is this other non-Islamic religious extremism? By this we meant would seemingly normal western people readily throw off the facade of normality if challenged, and quickly display the potential for being the same type of extremist we too frequently see on our television screens, civilised people deplore? Therefore, how readily would these others potentially take up arms with their own dubious righteous justification to commit the same mass murder they currently condemn?
From experience, we came to the conclusion - rightly or wrongly - that religious extremists of all types can always find ways to justify inhumanity.
So, we devised an experiment to test one of our hypotheses. And we put this experiment into action. The results were quite stunning - and very, very frightening.
The results showed that when seemingly normal people who seemingly advocate the accommodation of different ideas and outlooks have their personal beliefs questioned - even in a non-offensive, non-personal, non-confrontational manner - they indeed can quickly drop that facade of normality and acceptance. They can indeed quickly turn from logical normal people to illogical hate filled people on the verge of extreme actions. On one occasion one of these normal people even sent what could be described as hate mail to justify their point of view, while at the same time on another medium openly stating they accepted differences of opinion.
So, what does this say?
It may just be bad luck that we chose the wrong people, perhaps on the wrong day, perhaps for the wrong reasons. It has to be accepted that not all people behave in such a radical and potentially extreme manner - and perhaps it was our fault for choosing the wrong words and presenting them in the wrong manner. Or ... it may be that beneath the surface religious extremism is more common than we are realise, and that, beneath the surface, it is fermenting away, increasing in pressure as people increasingly seek an identity, a cause, a reason for being - and are willing to go to extreme lengths to defend what they believe ... by attacking in a blind and senseless manner.
If the latter is true then for sure it is alarming indeed. It means that as social pressure increases - as it is and will - then all these hidden tensions will become like a tinderbox awaiting that fateful spark. When the spark comes - as come it will - and finds the required fuel ... it will burn and it will destroy.
The fact is, the world is full of other cultures. It is full of ideas that are different from and foreign to one another. Technology and population / economic pressure are bringing people together more readily, more faster than ever before. Many people say they are accepting of other ideas and concepts and beliefs, yet beneath their surface they are a mass of seething resentment that is good ground for any hidden extremist philosophy. Such destructive philosophies are not confined to any one culture or any one region of the world.
We often see those shameful flag burning insane screaming protests in some far off country and we think of how barbaric and even ridiculous these people are. And yet ... are we so far removed from this state ourselves? The experiment shows we are not so civilised after all. We are just as unaccepting, intolerant, abusive, potentially just as inhuman and extreme as those who are the enemy of all right minded people.
This has been an interesting insight into human behavior ... and an alarming insight into how society will develop. This is a problem that can no longer be ignored as if it will go away. Like many other problems ... if ignored then it increases in intensity.
Regards
JS
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