James Stuart THE future insight specialist

PREDICTING GLOBAL TRENDS - predicting the future to create advantage today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

congestion charge, peace,

Syria, Sudan, nuclear, city

terrorism, extremism

greenhouse effect, predictions, government, taxation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

minimising future risk          creating sustainable advantage          creating opportunity

 

SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES AND THE KNOWLEDGE ADVANTAGE

 

The pace of change is increasing throughout the world. The perspective of all you think you know is about to change. The future is unlikely to be as you suppose it to be. Those who close their eyes to the future will never survive in this future.

The future is on its way and will be with you soon.

People / organisations / societies that are sustainable are those who are capable of accepting change – either proactively or reactively – and developing. Those who are not sustainable are those that are – for one reason or another – unable to change or unable to change fast enough.

What are the core differences and can this information be used to encourage a wider sustainability?

Tens of thousands of years ago, the first human societies were basic family groups or small gatherings of people. It is easy to dismiss these distant ancestors as somehow being inferior or inconsequential. This would be a very wrong and arrogant perception. Mankind developed through challenge and by overcoming adversity. Mankind learned what worked and what can be beneficial. And when circumstances changed, Mankind used existing knowledge and understanding to create new knowledge an understanding. This is how we progressed – change by change, cycle by cycle – learning and applying that learning. From this, over countless generations, over the trials and tribulations of those who’d gone before us, we achieved great insight.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

Biologically and psychologically there really isn’t much difference between the people of thousands of years ago and the people of today. The main difference between then and now is knowledge.

Early societies started off and managed to progress through the accumulation of knowledge – and the use of this knowledge to survive and develop. These weren’t stupid people. They knew how to survive. If they had been stupid or incapable then they wouldn’t have survived in a harsh and difficult world … and we would not be here today.

Knowledge and the innovation from this knowledge accumulated, was used, and created a further cycle of knowledge growth. This can be visualised as an upward reaching spiral from which the society as a whole was elevated to a greater standard of living, better health and education, leading directly to a further increase in knowledge and innovation.

Yet knowledge is only one of the essentials.

The other main essentials are communication and the ability to use this knowledge to reach forward and develop.

if any of these three essentials are missing, incomplete, restricted then the process outlined below will be incomplete.

Societies are unsustainable because of the incomplete process. For specific reasons the accumulated knowledge is not being used. This results in a type of fragility that has a low level of capability to cope with change.

Those societies that are sustainable utilise their accumulated knowledge. Importantly, they also utilise the accumulated knowledge of other societies and so increase more rapidly and gain further advantage. This clearly shows the importance of communication and sharing knowledge. Any restriction in this process, through for example, rivalry between close neighbours will invariably restrict the communication and the sharing of knowledge. This depresses development.

 

Figure 1: The knowledge process for development and sustainability.

 

Some societies / organisations / people do not have access to knowledge or refuse to use it to its full extent, or deliberately restrict communication and access as a control mechanism. This means they disregard half of the above process and divert straight from necessity to planning incurring risk and cost, decreasing their effectiveness:

 

Figure 2: Incurring Risk and Cost

 

On each cycle of Knowledge – change – development, if knowledge is not used appropriately, the relative risk and cost increases, diminishing the ability to develop.  The risk = risk that something will go wrong because past lessons haven’t been learned, or the risk that someone else will make use of the developments taking place and so can take advantage of any opportunity available.

Greater cost and greater risk = less sustainable development = fragility to change. As the rate of change increases, the less sustainable societies / organisations become increasingly weaker through the susceptibility to risk and the disregard of opportunity.

X,Y, Z: of the above diagrams:

X = benefits

Y = available relevant knowledge and the use of this knowledge

Z = the cost & risk of not knowing or not using Y

 

X      Y: the benefits are proportional to the available knowledge and the use of this knowledge. This means the more relevant knowledge a society uses the greater the benefit.

    Z: Y is proportional to Z. The effectiveness of knowledge is diminished if this knowledge is not used or there are gaps in the knowledge.  As new knowledge  / information has to be found, this results in extra cost and risk, diminishing sustainability and increasing fragility with respect to future change.

Y - Z    X: the decrease in effectiveness or use of knowledge will lead to a proportional decrease in benefit

    Y – Z: the benefits gained are proportional to the available knowledge and the use of this knowledge. The more relevant knowledge used, the less risk and less cost incurred, the greater the ability to develop and sustain that development.

The ability to change is fundamental to sustainability. If a society / organisation cannot change then they will be superseded.

          Z will rarely = zero

          The object is to decrease risk & cost and increase benefit

          In a cyclic manner Knowledge Management and the use of this knowledge reduces risk & cost through the continuous re-application of knowledge – building upon what is already known and innovating from the advantage of knowing

 

          DANGER: if there is no knowledge management or no use of existing knowledge there will be a continuous re-inventing of the wheel and incurring of avoidable cost & risk

 

 

 

Figure 3: Incurring extra cost and risk through the disregard of knowledge or the inability to use knowledge.

 

As with early Man thousands of years ago, the prime basis of the ability to survive and grow was learning then communicating that learning through generations, to re-use and add to, thereby gaining greater advantage with every cycle of change.

 

Figure 4: The Positive Feedback Cycle.

  • decreasing cost & risk through learning and the re-application of knowledge
  • increasing benefit through knowing what works and what to avoid
  • increasing innovation by avoiding a blame culture
  • increasing innovation through greater knowledge and understanding
  • increasing innovation through greater health, education and sustainable survivability.

 

From this understanding it is then clear to see where some organisations will succeed or fail in the future. It is also clear to see why some societies develop faster than others, why some are sustainable and others are less sustainable.

The type of change generally does not matter. What matters is the knowledge gained and the ability / willingness to use this knowledge. In the past, for various reasons knowledge and access to this knowledge would have been strictly controlled – one reason why some societies developed slower. The strict control would have come through internal divisions or through external forces, lessening the flow of knowledge, lessening development.

Yet in todays world of instant and widespread communication knowledge is freely available.

From the above understanding it is clear why the developed societies will continue to develop at a rapid pace.

With the above understanding, not as an academic exercise but a realistic proposition based on experience and observation, it is also clear to see exactly where some societies who are relatively poor can now increase their development to outstrip past progress and harness the benefits awaiting them.

This is an opportunity. It is not nearly as impossible as many would have us believe.

Not to realise this opportunity will be to consign particular societies to a long, slow gradual decline into oblivion.

Likewise any organisation that wishes to progress with a greater ability than has been in the past need only apply the above understanding – and the willingness to use it.

Just because things have been harsh in the past need not stop anyone from reaching on into a bright future. Indeed, because things have been harsh in the past gives a greater momentum and urgency to achieve that bright future. And it will be a future based on accumulated knowledge and the use of this knowledge, stemming back thousands of years to all our distant ancestors.

Make their efforts worth it. Make your efforts worth it. Make dreams come true. The future is approaching fast – you need the knowledge advantage to make it work for you.

Control your destiny … before someone else does. They are likely to have their own best interests to consider. Where will that leave you?

Knowledge Management and the Future of Opportunity

 

Written by: JAMES STUART http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesstuart - new direction and development through innovation

 

 

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