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DISCUSSION: The Future of Technology?
OVERVIEW:
1. The impact of technology on everyday lives will increase.
2. Entertainment and communication will dominate this increase.
3. Large but shrinking areas of the world will remain non-technical.
4. The use of technology to tap into deep deposits of water and resources will increase.
5. The development of hi-tech methods to harness sustainable energy sources will rapidly increase.
6. Agricultural and genetic technology will increase.
7. A greater and more widespread use of e-information, especially personal data.
8. Increasing cyber attacks by terrorists and criminals.
9. There will be greater surveillance and control of information.
10. The emergence of true nano-technology and intelligent robotics.
Technology will advance rapidly. Within the next ten years there will be massive advances in technology, with resultant impacts on different areas of life. As with many things, this change will have both advantages and disadvantages. How governments, organisations and companies use the new insights will to a large extent determine the future of the world, especially in terms of energy use.
Advances in technology will transform life, most acutely in the developed world, but increasingly throughout the developing world. The reach and impact of full blown technology in the developing world will be highly dependent on the sustainability and the political climate in those areas of the world.
On one hand, technology will make the world a more deadly place due to the weaponry and / or defensive capabilities being developed, for example, continuing experimentation with HAARP technology.
On the other hand, technology will make life easier, more fulfilling, healthier with greater opportunity and development, for example, genetic engineering and the control or eradication of previously deadly conditions / illnesses.
Without a doubt, within ten years, technology will also lead to a greater surveillance and a greater use of personal data with the threat of losing this personal data to criminals. About the most significant use of systematic surveillance will undoubtedly be by various security forces.
Out of all aspects of our evolving world, it is technology driven change that is the most noticeable. This change is increasing almost on a logarithmic scale. This means that within ten years there will be fast and furious change, and on a wide front as commercial entities battle for commercial gain and access to dwindling natural resources. Twenty years ago the world was recognisable. Twenty years into the future and the world will be much less recognisable.
How will technology change? And how will this impact on our lives?
For sure, in spite of reservations over debt and pollution, the world is set to become more consumer driven – even in the developing world as new products reach for new markets. The speed of innovation followed by the application of innovation either for a mass market or specialist appeal will be driven by commercial need The world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. There will be greater changes within the developed world, yet the degree of change experience will be greatest in the developing world.
Commerciality and politically globalisation is increasing in intensity fuelled by a number of complex factors. It would be a mistake for “anti-capitalists” to believe all globalisation is being driven by the developed world and corporate greed.
Some of the most successful companies are developing from the developing world. This is the mechanism to increase economic growth and sustainability in these regions. This will become evident within the next ten years across wide regions of the world, not simply centred on China and India.
Unlike fossil fuels, innovation is renewable. A small amount of innovation feeds a larger innovative output over time which feeds an even larger innovative output. So far this has been highly beneficial. It is reasonable to believe this trend will continue, although it is also a part of human nature to think of the worst case scenario, especially if feeling disembodied by the technology revolution.
Yes, there will be dangers. Yet highlighted dangers can be avoided. Importantly to bear in mind, there will also be benefits. These benefits will be many and varies and will pervade most aspects of life.
Food production will increase. Greater access to information systems will mean an increase in co-operation especially among specific areas of food production. This will lead to a greater control over market prices and an increase in “fair trade” as many of the middlemen handlers of foodstuffs will be cut out of the food supply equation, leaving a greater profitability to beleaguered farmers especially in crops such as coffee.
Within ten years increases in medical technology will give rise to a significant increase in genetic engineering mainly for the worthwhile purpose of stamping out specific diseases and disorders. Cancer cures will increase. As is a part of human nature, these same techniques that will be used for massive and beneficial good, will also be used for perceived aberrations. Genetic engineering will develop a dark side. Within ten years there is likely to be a publicised attempt at human cloning. Once this barrier is broken, there will be other ethically dangerous and highly contentious projects.
- It is important to note that the dark side of genetic engineering conducted by unscrupulous organisations will be sensationalised by the media for a fearful people. Although sensationalised, these episodes of perceived wrong use of technology will be few in number and should not be used as examples of halting all forms of research, the vast majority of which will be for the well being of humanity.
As has been stated above,
food production will increase. There will be open genetic engineering of
food crops. This will be to make them grow stronger, have a high yield and
be resistant to pests, without the addition of chemical additives. The
global benefits of this will be obvious but will cause a high level of
concern among those who will warn of potentially damaging and irreversible
effects on the environment.
Some unscrupulous companies developing this genetic engineering capability will want their research far away from prying eyes – or political control. They will relocate to the developing world where they will practice beyond most forms of control.
In terms of food production there will also be greater use of technology controlled irrigation and hydroponics. This will be especially valuable in arid and semi-arid areas developing from encroaching global warming effects. Such areas will not be confined to the developing world.
Technology will be used extensively for the exploration and use of deep deposits of groundwater. This will be especially centred on those regions of the world where water is a valuable commodity and much required to ensure the sustainability of localised agriculture. There can be no doubt freshwater will become an increasingly valuable natural resource. Already, several areas of the world that have previously enjoyed plentiful supplies of freshwater are becoming concerned at dwindling supplies in the face of growing demand. It has been strongly suggested this alone will become a major destabilising factor leading to future conflict.
Although an increasing global warming will have a serious negative impact on large areas of vulnerable land, through technology some effects will be minimised. As has been stated, the encroachment of desertification and abandonment in adjoining areas will be reduced due to technology induced irrigation, as well as the advances made by genetic engineering to increase the hardiness of some crops.
As oil supply peaks yet the demand for energy to power growing global economies increases, there will be several breakthroughs in the hi-tech led approach to harnessing sustainable sources of energy. This will be crucial in turning, for example, solar power from being of limited efficiency and use, to a full scale efficient energy source that will have the ability to power large sections of the economy. This in itself will give rise to a significant new direction for technology the impact of which should not be underestimated.
Although oil and oil products will continue to be used, and in some areas R&D will be suppressed, once the new wave of technology for sustainable energy is released, it will only increase in efficiency and cost effectiveness – and become more widespread once regions of the world discover the benefits of energy self sufficiency. This will have the advantage of freeing large areas of the developing world to develop. Ironically, it will be the developed world with its deep ties to oil companies that will suffer the greatest restrictions on the application of this new technology.
The developed world, however, will benefit greatly from the hi-tech insights into true nanotechnology as well as massive R&D into intelligent robotics. These will be areas that will increase in impact as the systems become more intelligent. Due to a social and political backlash much of this innovation will continue to be held for specific work areas and not yet released into the general population.
In general there will also be a greater degree of technological control over most aspects of life. This is inevitable. It is also unavoidable and acceptable - if there are sufficient controls in place to secure the safety of personal data. This will be a fine line for any government or resourceful organisation to tread.
Many aspects of life will be recorded, catalogued and archived, whether people like it or not, and many will not.
In general the increasing technology will give rise to a massive increase in data generation. It is this general flow of data that will underpin many of the major technical-life advances.
Entertainment technology will increase in availability and the scope of entertainments available. The relatively large technology of today will become smaller, more affordable and have greater access to entertainments. For example, televisions will become thinner, screens larger. The television itself will become more than a television screen but rather the centre of all household electronics that will involve heating, lighting, sound, entertainment access, security, video calls, etc.
The impact of this will be strongly felt throughout the developed world, but will be slow to establish itself in some areas of the developing world simply due to cost and service provision.
Mobile telephones will develop more extensive functionality - and speed of functionality. These will effectively become handheld entertainment and communications centres, rapidly diverging from straightforward telephone functions. Mobile phones will also obtain either a pre-paid financial capability or become directly linked to banks / credit cards. Thus the device will become a payment mechanism.
In line with these developments, security to protect the physical phone or any potential fraudulent transactions resulting from the theft of the phone, will be increased.
This in itself displays two of the major areas of technological advance: entertainment and communications. Both will require secure access and secure payment, and will continue to be a struggle to be one step ahead of the hackers and forgers who will themselves develop more ingenious methods of gaining entry and stealing identities, especially if from the cyber world and not even in the country of transaction origin.
Banks and financial
institutions are likely to become fully electronic – and continue to be
criticized for holding onto customers money in order to gain interests.
Banks and credit card companies are likely to be at the forefront of
battling hackers employed mainly by organised crime or terrorists.
Terrorists will increasingly target financial institutions as a means of damaging the financial might of the developed world. This will have serious financial consequences.
At the same time, money transactions for terrorist groups and money laundering in general will become even more sophisticated than it presently is. There will be no option. Organised crime and terrorist groups themselves will become increasingly electronic – and seek to exploit the main weakness of the world, the technological Achilles heel. For organised crime this will be access to either personal or mass data. For terrorist groups this will be to shut down financial centres either directly or through the planting of destructive viruses to achieve targeted shut down.
Under the radar limited cyber warfare will become a favourite mechanism of several countries as a new form of warfare fought from offices rather than battlefields. This in itself will negate the political backlash from committing armies to war. It will also limit the costs of warfare. This type of behaviour has already begun. Within five years it will be as sophisticated as any warfare operation.
Anti-capitalist, eco and animal rights groups, among the many growing anti-people movements, will also take to hacking in an attempt to secure their own particular revenge against specific commercial bodies. A quagmire of such groups will develop from an increasingly disenfranchised population seeking to find a purpose and a voice, aided by information from sympathisers from within targeted organisations.
This will undoubtedly include a ground swell of opinion and action against the increase in general surveillance, organising into a true social force for personal freedom – itself an obvious target for surveillance.
Personal freedom will become a major battle ground.
One of the most major technological developments to take place will be in the realm of national security. Already a high priority, this future battlefield will give ample opportunity for the criminals and terrorists of the coming generation to develop tactics – and expose weakness. This will require an investment led pro-active approach to national, organisational and personal security.
Written by: JAMES STUART http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesstuart - new direction and development through innovation
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