PREDICTING GLOBAL TRENDS - predicting the future to create advantage today

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

FORECASTING

Innovation is important. We specialise in the search for and the development of innovation. We know what will be important through our understanding of the world and how it is moving.

The world is undergoing significant change. As a matter of safety, security and economic progression, there is a great need to understand and know how the present will develop into the future ... and what this future will hold. It is an essential.

Forecasting is an art as much as it is a science. Traditional forecasting relies almost completely on tangible data. This is good as far as it goes yet is hardly representative of the complete world. It is hardly holistic. This is why it is of limited value in a dynamic and highly complex world. We live in this world. If we are to gain relevant insight into the opportunities and threats emerging over the horizon, that which will impact on all our lives, we must have as much information as possible. This means forecasting from a holistic approach. A holistic approach to take into account the complexities, the unknowns, and the intangibles we all know are major factors in modern day living.

To give a holistic view of what the likely outcome is, forecasting takes into account three main aspects of the world around us:

1. available data;

2. underlying global trends;

3. cultural, social and political behaviour.

All three areas are inextricably linked. They are a unique blend of tangible and intangible. None of them can be taken in isolation to gain a representative view. They are all pieces of the same jigsaw. They are all part of the dynamic and complex world in which we live.

This is the world today:

... with all the changes taking place, what will it be like tomorrow? If you don't know, how can you plan ahead? This is information you need. How else can you gain or create advantage?

The world is changing. How will it change for you? Can you really afford to miss out?

From our futurist experience, numerous organisations have little or no insight into the near future. They are therefore unable to identify potential opportunities or threats. Unwanted consequences are all too common - and those who should have a view are surprised at what unfolds. This invariably means a high cost to bear. Too often this is too high a cost to bear.

Many of these episodes are avoidable.

So ... what will the future hold?

Knowledge = cost + opportunity = advantage.

With limited information, as we attempt to create a better world, what we at times do create is a world of decreasing understanding. A world of decreasing stability. You need more information - relevant information, information about the wider changes taking place and the impact of these changes ... before they happen.

This is strategic understanding at its furthest reach. But then again ... you could always close your eyes and hope for the best.

James Stuart: a leading edge independent consultant in global development This advisory service is designed to give relevant advice, insight and guidance. Would you like to know more?

Find out how we can help you. Contact Alt3: central@alt3.co.uk