PREDICTING GLOBAL TRENDS - predicting the future to create advantage today

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

minimising future risk

creating sustainable advantage

creating opportunity

GLOBAL ECONOMY

Globalisation is shifting. The pattern and establishment of economic stability, growth and development is changing. The economic face of the world is being transformed. This will be a major transformation. For some it will be the end of an era. For others it will be an incredible opportunity.

Which will you be? Do you know what will happen in the near future? If you don't know, how can you plan ahead? Considerable wealth and progression may well be at risk.

Although there is a general upward trend for the global economy, it will not be the same for everyone. There will be a series of dynamic changes in the near to middle term future. Sustainability and fragility will be tested. This period will determine the long term viability of each region, each country and each organisation.

This sense of flux and instability will be a direct result of a number of factors such as:

• the economic mismanagement of specific global areas

• climate change

• political and social change

• fuel demand and supply, including peak oil

• extremist action

• reducing supplies of fresh water

These changes will affect everyone. They will affect every country. They will affect sustainability and development. They will affect traditional strengths and will affect present day expected outcomes. They will affect employment. They will affect fortunes.

One of the greatest factors determining future development will the demand and supply of oil. The current high cost of oil is only the beginning of a more major process that, if ignored or unchecked, will undermine economic stability and growth.

Would you like to know how this will affect you?

It would be a mistake to believe strong developed economies will be immune to the changes taking place. Each economy has a series of highly specific strengths and weaknesses.

The graphs of the GLOBAL INDEX give insights into how some different major countries may well develop in the near to middle term future. These graphs do not show the present situation. They show the developing situation.

STATEMENT: if present trends continue, the global economy will slow and decline. This is already taking place due to the cost of oil, the continued deliberate reliance on oil, and the growth of biofuel crops escalating the cost of foods.

• by 2010 global sustainability will display signs of decline.

• By 2013 - 2015 there will be serious decline.

This will give rise to significant hardship, social and business change. The organisations best suited to create and achieve advantage will be those who understand sustainability and have implemented measures to increase their own sustainability.

The main culprit for this potential decline in the global economy? The present financial credit crisis? No.

The main driver for decline will be the increasing energy costs, specifically oil. This will have a number of complex negative effects.

The increasing cost of oil will - at first - be absorbed by the different economies and individuals. As the cost increases, this will begin to feed through into other aspects of cost, inflation and choice. There will come a time in the economies of all countries (and individuals) when this increasing cost cannot be absorbed - and so will start to slow development and will start to reduce sustainability. On an individual level this will be the point when choice starts to be reduced.

Fragile and less sustainable economies (or budgets) will be first to feel the downturn. Following 2010 there will be a rise in the cost of some foodstuffs as a result of the growth of bio-fuels. This will further add to the cost burden of all countries, of all people.

• Imagine what this instability will mean for the financial markets.

As the oil price increases further, there will be a further suppression of global development as increasing resources are channeled towards basic energy costs:

There are some difficult times ahead.

How will global economic change affect you? Would you like to gain insight and so understand the impact of the actual and potential changes about to take place?

Would you like to know how you can create advantage - to survive and grow? Would you like to have a clearer view of how to:

• control core costs

• target limited resources

• maximise existing markets

• identify new markets

• observe new threats

• maximise revenue generation / relevance

• build loyalty

James Stuart: a leading edge independent consultant in global development. This advisory service is designed to give relevant advice, insight and guidance. Would you like to know more?

Find out how we can help you. Contact Alt3: central@alt3.co.uk