PREDICTING GLOBAL TRENDS - predicting the future to create advantage today
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The Changing Nature of Globalisation
The world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. Is it true that most companies and organisations have such a limited view of the changes taking place? Most companies have strategies. Yet largely these strategies are fairly tunneled visioned pieces of work born out of the subconscious belief that whatever happens in the wider world really will not impact the organisation.
The world is full of this “out of sight, out of mind” attitude, this Ostrich way of working. And so when something goes wrong, as invariably it will when walking around with eyes closed pretending everything is fine, it takes extensive resources to dig themselves out of one of the many holes they fall down.
Demographics are shifting. Markets are changing. Products and how they are used are changing. People want a new way of interacting with business. The economic climate is dynamic. New opportunities and threats are steamrolling over the horizon.
Companies who do not see or fail to understand these quite basic alterations are doomed to failure. Or at least … vast expense running to stand still – to the great joy of more agile competitors.
In our fast changing world can anyone really afford to ignore the opportunities and threats?
Globalisation is evolving fast. The traditional areas of strength are shifting. The consumerist areas of the west are becoming less strong as the economic balance shifts. The producing areas of the east are becoming less strong as wider factors come into importance. Globalisation is spreading – and with significant consequences.
Far from being an era of uncertainty and threat, what we are starting to experience is in fact an era of unrivalled opportunity.
And yet … how can ANY company or organisation create sustainable advantage – or sustainable commercial advantage – if they fail to understand the changing nature of this globalisation? Many still struggle with the globalisation of several years ago. The new world developing is clearly passing them by.
Indeed, the new world developing is ideal for entrepreneurs regardless of where they are located. Following so many costly mistakes from having virtually no global insight, the old lumbering institutions are suddenly finding themselves no longer to be backed by seemingly endless resources. They are suddenly finding themselves being outwitted and outmaneuvered by the new generation of developments and organisations. They are the ones who have to do something very, very serious if they are to remain viable.
Will they do it?
Some will. Some won’t. Those that won’t will be because they are locked in their traditional view of the world and will quite simply fail to understand the changing nature of globalisation. These are the ones that will become less and less important, to be overtaken.
Those that are successful will be those who come to understand the transformations taking place in the US, in Europe, in Africa, in the Middle East, in Asia. They will come to understand that the west no longer has financial superiority, that Asia will have to overcome a number of significant barriers if it is to remain on its growth curve, that there is a rising generation of entrepreneurs starting to make themselves felt in resource rich but aid hindered Africa.
Business will help drive change.
The business world of 5-10 years time will be noticeably different to the business world of today.
As human society and commerce evolves it invariably encounters problems. How it overcomes these problems defines the society at that time. Some areas of the world will sit and complain about “jobs being lost overseas” – yet continue to demand ever cheaper retail prices. Some areas of the world will continue to squander the resources at their disposal. Some areas of the world will have to contend with water shortages, rising costs, brain drain, significant political change, climate change, while trying to maintain production and growth. And as these problems occur and as the consequences of an uncontrolled use of finite resources take hold, the focus of globalisation spreads to new areas of the world where there are less problems, less cost, more availability.
To harness the changes taking place needs only organisation.
It is quite incredible to see where many business leaders see the growth areas of globalisation. Their view is clearly several years out of date. This displays the view and the state of their businesses – several years out of date and running to catch up. Usually they have absolutely no idea of what the surface and sub-surface global trends are that affect and will increasingly affect their businesses. They firmly believe in what they can see from their tunneled visioned strategies.
Yet the world is changing. The pace of change is increasing. It is no longer enough to bask in past glories. It is no longer enough to look straight ahead. The path of human development, the course of human society, the evolution of globalisation never has been a linear movement. It never has been in a single one way direction. Years ago it would’ve been acceptable to see only straight ahead when the pace of change wasn’t as dynamic and turbulent as it is today. Yet today and for all of our tomorrows, the pace of change IS and will be dynamic. It will be turbulent. It will be fast. Anyone who simply looks straight ahead at a perfect line of business movement will always miss what’s going on out of view at either side. They will always miss what’s coming up fast from behind, from above, from below.
Those who have enjoyed superiority in the past will have to work smarter to retain that superiority. Those who have developed fast in the past will have to work smarter to retain that development in the future. And all the time, new areas of the world will reach forward with new ways of being successful, new markets, new products and developments. In such an environment business leaders really need to lead. They must be proactive. They must shed their old arrogant reactive nature and see the world as it really is.
In all truth, this is the changing nature of globalisation. In the new world developing nothing will ever be the same again.
You reap what you sow. Do you want to reap the benefits? If the answer is yes … then you have to start doing something about it. This is something that cannot be left to chance.
Written by: JAMES STUART http://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesstuart - new direction and development through innovation
