understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

THE ALT3 TOP PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS July 2009

Welcome to the world we are developing into. Make no mistake there are significant challenges ahead - yet nothing is set in stone. Below are predictions based on past and current events / trends. In this manner, if the current developments continue, we are confident about the predictions with a fairly good degree of certainty. However, if the current developments do not continue (for example, we all suddenly stop using fossil fuels - unlikely, we know) then the predictions will obviously be affected.

There is a lot of detail behind these predictions but to keep the text to a minimum, the predictions have been generalised.

About the only major uncertainty is when a terrorist group will gain access to WMD. This is not an "if", but a "when". There are a number of extremist states and antagonistic regimes out there who preach only destruction as a means of distraction from their own failed domestic policies.

It must also be noted that several of these forecasts will run in parallel with one another, for example, the changing weather patterns and extreme weather events especially in the most susceptible areas such as the coast of China and the US, starting 2009 and increasing in intensity throughout 2010.

1. There will be slow but sure global financial recovery throughout the remainder 2009 and on into 2010. It will soon become clear significant lessons have not been learned with the 2008 / 2009 financial safeguards being only partially successful, yet enough for a cautious confidence to be returned. Different countries will begin to come out of the crisis at different rates, depending on how they managed their crisis. From this the world will start to develop once more.

2. 2010 will see the first major regional water shortages in specific parts of the world. This will have a major impact on the productivity of these areas, and therefore the ability of each region to feed itself. This in turn will be the push for what will, within 3-5 years, become a major population migration. Initially this migration will be from the land to nearby cities. Within the cities there will be severe tensions of the availability of resources. The migration will then more more towards the developing to the developed world, where once more there will be stress on the availability of resources and the preservation of culture.

3. The water shortages will be both as a direct result of the over use and misuse of fresh water supplies, as well as the first major indications of global warming and shifting weather patterns. Within 3-5 years these shifting weather patterns will cause a noticeable change in both continental and marine climates. The seasons will become more extreme, with different effects in different climatic areas. The marine climate regions (the shores and that part of each country directly inland from the shores) which comprises much of the long distance bulk trade routes, will become increasingly susceptible to storms and storm damage. Consequently, in some regions of the world there will be drought while in other regions there will be severe flooding. This will first be felt throughout China, India and the southern areas of the US.

4. Peak Oil. The continuing reliance on oil will significantly hamper the economic performance of specific countries. The oil price will increase in line with decreasing supply which will eat into the economic sustainability of these countries and will place at risk any economic recovery from the previous crisis. Those areas of the world who have embraced alternative, more sustainable, sources of energy and fuel (not biofuels) will discover they have the means to further fuel their development and progression - and outstrip those countries who have continued to fuel growth through the increasing cost of oil.

5. Technology, the range and scope and impact of technology, will increase. The R&D of some companies and some countries with respect to reliable, high quality, fundamental change technologies, will give them the leading edge in commercial performance. This will include entertainment, communication, lifestyle, genetic engineering, health, materials science and sustainable technologies. New industries will rise. As a result, there will be an extensive increase in electronic information and the use of e-information individually, corporately and nationally. Corporates who are unable to undertake this business change will be commercially disadvantaged. With the growth of e-information there will be increased hacking activity, both from an individual mischievous angle, and importantly from an organised attempt at cyber war from specific regimes and from extremists.

6. Surveillance. There will be a rise in the overt surveillance society. Competing against this direction of travel will be the constant calls for human rights and specific liberties, which will increasingly be listened to, yet in the context of greater threat from criminals, terrorists and those who sought to take advantage of the increased competitive environment between countries and between corporates. There will be an increasingly blurred line between what is acceptable and what is not.

7. Terrorism. Within 2-3 years a terrorist group will have gained a weapon of mass destruction directly from one of the hostile regimes in the world ... and will use it on one of a number of very specific target areas. This will spark a sudden global economic decline, and it will spark conflict in one form or another. Destructive as it is, this will be a galvanising force. For the first time there will be clear lines between what is right and what is wrong, regardless of culture, location, religion, colour, etc. What happens following this point will depend greatly on the calibre of political leadership and the ability to turn away from religious extremism in specific regions of the world.

8. Political. Already underway but galvanised by the constant threat of terrorism and the increased use of surveillance / e-information, there will be a movement to blur the lines between some specific countries, creating the rise in regional political power rather than isolated national power. To some this will be an attack on liberty and culture. To others it will be the only conceivable way forward to gain control of what they perceive as a rising level of chaos. This will be an attempt to create order out of chaos. It will be more successful in some parts of the world than in others, depending on the depth of division already present.

9. Health care. Within 3-5 years a number of the prominent health care systems around the world will be broken. Others will be under severe strain. This will be due to a number of factors such as the rise in specific health trends (for example, COPD, type 2 diabetes, etc.) and the general aging of the population, as well as the mismanagement of some health care systems. Significant steps towards insuring effective treatment (for example, some cancers) will have been made and this will have a major impact. But increasingly some health care systems will find their ability to deliver widespread high quality health care diminishing. There will be calls for greater funding ... but only by those who fail to understand the fundamentals of managing health care, of which there are and will be many.

10. Restricted information. Contents restricted to Alt3 only.

SUMMARY: the world is undergoing significant change. What we do today will impact on the changes of tomorrow. Many of the changes will be good (for example, new medical cures), yet some not so good (for example, the consequences of religious extremism). How we handle these will determine the outcome.

How will these changes affect you?

Regards

JS

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk