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A critical Breaking Point February, 2009

There can be no doubt the wheels of change are turning with more depth now than ever before. The recent economic crisis has shown us that seemingly small events cause ripples of consequence which build momentum to release a wave of incidence that affects everyone.

However, human nature as it is, as the dust begins to settle and we start to count the cost of recent events, many people are taking a deep breath thinking the crisis is over, or at least there is an end in sight. They are wrong.

What we are experiencing is a chain reaction. It's always been that way yet now it has reached such a critical point that each set of ripples of consequence creates not one wave, but a series of waves, each one greater than the last, as other events join to produce something far greater. The dip that allows us to draw breath and think all is well, is merely that - a dip before the rise in activity once more. And this new rise of activity, over the course of time, will cause far more fundamental change than any credit crunch.

Fasten your seat belts. And the strange thing is ... very few people are paying attention, so when the wave hits once more those who are not paying attention will only proclaim how surprised they are - and blame everyone else for their stupidity.

The wheels have been set in motion. In the next few years we will experience a massive wave of migration that will strip some societies bare, and will completely swamp others.

There has always been migration. And indeed, on the whole migration is a good thing. Yet now there will be a series of triggers that will ratchet up the wheels of change to a critical breaking point.

The first has been the credit crunch which has made even worse the divide between rich and poor causing an increase in the drift-osmosis effect, with an increased pull from the poor to the rich areas. In the coming 6-9 months this pull will slowly become greater as later this year, and into the next the following trigger will come into play.

This second trigger will be evident through the long, slow decline of sustainability of a large number of countries with fragile economies due to the credit crunch and the increase in basic costs, as well as a decrease in available aid. Economic conditions will become even more hard within these countries, giving a greater reason for people and skills to move in this age of fast, efficient transport.

The third trigger, quickly following the second, will be the loss of food production because of a number of reasons including the biofuel switch from food crops, decreasing fresh water and increased inclement weather.

The fourth trigger will be a worsening of the fresh water situation and the loss of agricultural production through decreasing water and an increasing global warming. This will make large areas of previously productive land unproductive. The affected areas will stretch in a band across the circumference of the Earth, through some of the most populated areas.

And the effect of this?

People will move. People will move from the land into the cities. This will have a number of effects. There will be a limited negative feedback cycle with respect to decreasing food production. There will also be a massive increase in city population which will have dramatic effects. This will place a number of specific cities on the bursting point. As cultures clash within small spaces there will be violence and crime, and a rise in extremism, both from the newcomers and importantly from those who were there from the start. There will be massive pressure on localised resources to cause shortages and even more price increases and through these even further hardships. In some areas there is likely to be disease. In all areas government and law enforcement will be severely tested. City pressures will include water, education, health provision. Few cities will be immune. Some specific cities will find themselves in significant difficulties.

So ... people can take a deep breath and believe the dust is settling from the credit crunch, but ...

We have just experience the first trigger. If we work together, as an international community, we can halt the above process at the second or even at the third trigger. If we don't do it by this point then when the world reaches the fourth trigger there will be no stopping the consequences.

The world needs leaders of vision who can put aside old enmities, work together and create something better. The world does not need any more division. We face a common set of problems. We need each other. Let us create that something better - for the benefit of all because if we don't do it, who will?

Regards

JS

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

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