understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

THE DAWN OF UNDERSTANDING December, 2009

We are at the dawn of understanding. There are major and fundamental changes ahead. This concept of the dawn of understanding is important ... and yet ...  it isn't what many would think of or what they may realise. For sure it isn't what may would hope for.

Yes we are all - yes, all of us - are starting to experience the dawn of understanding that we are all - yes, all of us - on the brink of disaster and there is very little that can stop it now. Yet how far it goes depends on you.

There are major and fundamental changes ahead. For some time we at Alt3 have been giving visibility of the series of connected events that are about to occur. This is more than global warming. It is more than peak oil. It is more than increasing population and diminishing resources. It is more than extremism. It is more than lots of things we have termed "convergence". It is far more than this. For we of Alt3 this is a chilling realisation. It is chilling not only because we can deduce what will happen, but it is chilling because we understand WHY we are on the brink of disaster.

This is the dawn of understanding.

The major changes about to take place, and the events are already in motion and starting to impact, can ONLY be turned into advantage by concerted international action by countries, by organisations, by individuals. The dawn of realisation if that in spite of well meaning words hindered by short term political gain and risk aversion, the concerted international action just will not happen. We have to face facts. Look at what's happening. The global political will is not there to change and because of this we are on the brink of disaster. We of Alt3 are painting a vivid picture. We are making a bold and politically incorrect statement - the world is in serious trouble and is actively headed toward that trouble because of self interest, greed and a lack of will.

Some of you who are reading this will understand the impact of what will happen. Some of you will not. The impacts will be significant. They will be severe. They will be long term.

From our assessments we can make an educated guess at the following:

 

	DEVELOPED WORLD %	DEVELOPING WORLD %
wand to change behaviour	15	20
do not want to change behaviour	15	15
in denial because struggling to survive	50	60
in denial because not interested	20	5

The fact is ... we, the human race, are on the brink. There are many who want to change - but not nearly enough, hence the political pressure isn't enough. The natural tendency of politicians is for risk aversion. They won't move unless they have to. In spite of their brave words politicians are rarely visionaries yet in todays world on the brink of fundamental change what we need are visionaries - visionaries with the power to create positive change. And most of all, this is what we are lacking - hence the lack of positive change and the chilling realisation that although there is the realisation we are in trouble, there is the even greater realisation we will not change the way we do things until there is enough pain to move. This is a basic fact of any type of consultancy.

And yet make no mistake ... the time will run out to take effective action while we are waiting for the build up of pain. It will then turn from positive advantage to remedial action born from panic and even more self interest.

This is the dawn of understanding. It is not something we cherish ... yet who pays attention to what we've already predicted and has come true? ALL of what we have predicted has come true. It is a chilling realisation, a true dawn of understanding, that what we have predicated for the future will also come true simply because the time has now run out to change the way we are in the world. Some will say we have until 2015 to alter behaviour to avert global warming yet global warming is only one aspect and very shortly - VERY shortly - the worlds attention will be averted by one if not two of the other forthcoming events BEFORE 2015.

As connected events now unfold across the world and through time, their impact will increase. The severity of these impacts will depend very much on how countries behave, they will depend very much on how quickly companies gain and maintain a sense of responsibility, they will depend very much on how many of the above population % gain their voices and use them. But make no mistake - there will be impacts. The initial ones are unavoidable now. How quickly we as a people, we as a global economy, recover will depend on what we do from now on. If we choose to ignore what's happening and continue on the path of squabble and conflict and selfish self interest then of course the impacts will be severe and deep. If we choose to act and work with a sense of responsibility then we can start to avoid the harshest impacts.

Politicians of all persuasions ... you have to be better than what you have been. It is clear what needs to be done. Alt3 has clear visibility of the range of connected challenges ahead. If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare for success?

If you are a country would you like to know how to create advantage out of chaos? We simply have to be better at what we do. The future sustainability depends on it. You WILL be judged by history.

If you are an organisation would you like to know how to create sustainable commercial advantage?

Contact us. Work towards a greater future. The time has come to choose. Any other time has run out. Will you make a difference or will you make the disaster that is building?

Regards

JS
 

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk