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THE FUTURE OF AIR TRAVEL December, 2009
Much of the talk these days is around the much required and necessary "Copenhagen" agreement. Without a doubt, a lack of a coherent agreement now will lead to significant difficulties not so far in the future.
As we all know, there are many reasons for the fact that we are on the verge of man-made global warming. Industrialisation, increasing population, fossil fuels, intensification of farming, deforestation, increasing consumerism and increasing standards of living, etc., etc., etc. As the above can no longer be argued with, so another fact cannot be argued with - global development cannot be halted, cannot be stalled - the world cannot return to some idyllic past that in reality did not exist.
We have to find a balance. We have to work smarter, not harder. This is the same for countries as it is for corporates as it is for consumers.
One of the major debates taking place at the moment is on the future of air travel. As development increases so it is reasonable to assume the need and desire to travel will increase as globalisation evolves. Using the emotions behind the Copenhagen agreement, there are already calls to curtail air travel and to curtain the creation of new airports. This is a fairly blind aim at an easy target and displays only how little those people understand the nature of the changes that will take place. Any investigation of the past, present and future rarely displays true linear movement. This is the same for air travel. Increased global development will not mean a proportional increase in air travel and certainly not a proportional increase in the pollution from air travel.
There are two reasons for this:
1. business travel will increase much less swiftly than has been predicted.
Business travel is expensive in many terms. Companies can no longer afford to engage in unlimited travel. And anyway, the nature of the new globalisation taking place means there is a need for instant communication - and more of it, far more than can be achieved by jumping on a plane. The new wave of technology and the decreasing expense of this technology means a viable alternative to business air travel. It is an alternative that will drive globalisation without the associated costs in terms of money and pollution.
2. New plane design and fuels will decrease the environmental impact.
The air industry knows its own weak spots very well. Already we are seeing the production of new planes that will require a significant decrease in fuel. Already we are seeing the experimentation of new types of plane fuel that together will heavily decrease the environmental impact of air travel.
So you see ... reducing the carbon output does not mean a reduction in global development. Far from it. Ingenious and energetic creatures as we are, we find viable alternatives. This will be the future of air travel.
Regards
JS
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