understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

WHO HASN'T HEARD OF GLOBAL WARMING?

There can be little doubt that the natural Milankovic cycle (the way the Earth wobbles on its axis and the differences in the orbits around the sun) has and always will be a major factor in global warming and global freezing. This is generally accepted … except perhaps by those who continue to believe the Earth is flat and is at the centre of the universe – and make no mistake, there are many who refuse to believe overwhelming evidence.

Where as the natural Milankovic cycle is beyond doubt, there is also overwhelming evidence that mans activities are contributing at such a rate to completely upset the natural balance. This natural balance is an equilibrium between complex factors. One of the consequences of this equilibrium is a natural global warming – a recognised greenhouse effect – that increases the otherwise low surface temperatures and makes most of our world habitable.

Without this natural global warming there would be a deep and extensive ice age. Without this natural global warming, life as we know it would certainly not be the same. And yet with a relatively new and high level of input, the ability of the equilibrium to accommodate new inputs is reaching one of those critical tipping points beyond which there will be widespread impact and change.

This is the effect of mans activities on Global Warming.

There's something about human nature ... we all think we're safe, don't we? In our modern world many people have a significant disregard for the forces of nature - and our ability to impact nature.

The world as we know it is a dynamic system. It doesn't stand still. With the inevitable increase in the greenhouse effect, the extremes of weather and the extreme consequences of weather are predicted to cause increasing damage, disruption and loss of life. This is the sharp end of climate change.

Are mans activities really causing such an upset in the natural balance? Is the balance being changed so a new equilibrium is reached at an increased surface temperature? These activities include burning increasing amounts of fossil fuels, massive deforestation, pollution of the seas, damaging gases from increasing waste and landfill, intensive farming, etc., etc., etc.

The weight of evidence strongly indicates the increasing levels of, for example, carbon dioxide and methane, as a direct result of the above activities are causing a realignment of the complex natural equilibrium. Many of the consequences of this realignment, this enhancement of the global warming, are best guesses. Yet the overwhelming majority of these best guesses – and from people who know – point to the same general direction … there is a disaster looming on our horizon. This disaster will be unprecedented in human history. This disaster will affect all life in our world. It will change everything.

The evidence has been attacked because of these “best guesses” by those with a vested interest in retaining the present status quo – and in the mean time maximising their profit. This is in the sure knowledge that if we wait for conclusive proof … it will be too late to avoid the damaging effects of an increased Global Warming.

In this instance the concept of “profit before people” is not merely a moral dilemma. It is in fact a dilemma centred on corporate viability Vs global economic viability.

As stated above, some people will always refuse to believe something unless there is overwhelming proof. Nothing wrong with that. It’s healthy to be sceptical. However there are those who will refuse to believe something even if there IS overwhelming proof.  

Most of us have never walked on the moon – yet we know the moon exists. We’ve never touched it yet we can see it and we’ve heard of other people walking on the moon. Do we doubt the existence of the moon even although we’ve never been there?

The overwhelming evidence of the existence of the moon is mostly from measurement and observation. What we have today for Global Warming is measurement and observation. This is nothing to do with blind faith. This has everything to do with the weight of evidence and being beyond reasonable doubt.

Who denies the existence of the moon? Who denies the probable impact of mans activities on an increasing global warming?

The evidence for Global Warming is based on sound science – yet Global Warming is now beyond pure science. The use of resources to combat Global Warming are political – yet Global Warming is now beyond slow moving, self-obsessed politics. The culprits – the commercial world, the government world, the consumer world – are all struggling with the concept of the likely impacts, continuing to be entrenched in the outdated thinking of “them and us”, without realising the world has moved on and demands a new way of thinking.

In the realm of “reasonable doubt” the fate of the world cannot be left up to the whims of individual groups. Indeed, the time is right for individual groups to work together to create a sustainable solution.

This is the new reality emerging even as more traditional and competing forces continue with the old, divided, world of “them and us”.

The consequences of Global Warming will affect every country, every company, every consumer. Only by working together in true collaboration can governments, companies and people change the inevitable. This is a good old fashioned entrepreneurial opening.

Will it really affect everyone? Will a degree or two really matter? The thing is … it’s not the mean global temperature increase that people should focus on. This is only an average and will not be evenly spread.

• There will be regional spikes in temperature, increasing severe weather fluctuations and in some regions making agriculture impossible.

• Fresh water – already a major global concern - will become more precious.

• Some inland areas will become deserts and prone to unpredictable storms.

• Coastal areas will become flooded and prone to unpredictable storms.

• The zone of tropical diseases will move north and south – and up in altitude – to expose significant centres of population that were previously relatively safe.

• The economies of a number of countries will be devastated.

• Health and education within these areas will decline.

• There will be a significant shift in the global population unleashing a massive wave of migration.

·         Ocean currents may be affected, altering further the weather and climate within specific regions of the world.

• Significant shifts in food production will cause a running catalogue of humanitarian disasters.

The above points are not alarmist or things that “might” happen at the beginning of the next century. These will be within living memory. This has all the makings of an unprecedented ecological and human disaster the like of which has never before been seen.

It is a common misconception that survival of the fittest means survival of the strongest. If this was true, the world would still be populated by dinosaurs and mammoths. The fact is … the world isn’t. This should tell us something. Survival of the fittest means survival of those with the greatest ability to change and to harness change. History is full of dinosaurs. And today, through Global Warming, there are more dinosaurs on the horizon.

For those who perceive they will be safe in the developed world and that, somehow, the worst effects will again be felt in Africa – think again. Agriculture will become increasingly difficult in a wide band from Australia through to China, through to southern Europe and many areas of central America and the US itself. The effects and consequences of the massive wave of migration will also be felt by everyone.

The world will become highly polarised – and highly protectionist.

The value of everything you have will change.

How you perceive your future and the future of your children will change.

Why?

Why, because the longer there is a delay in coherent international co-operation, the greater the impacts of Global Warming. Ask yourself why there is a delay and be honest. Be sure you know there are companies – wealthy companies – with a vested interest in maintaining the current status quo.

The future – the near future – is being held to ransom by the drive for current profit. Profit is good, of course it is. But not at any price. If there was profit at any price we’d still see children being forced to work down the coal mines. Thankfully some things have been outlawed. Thankfully small step by small step we reach towards a greater sense of civilisation. Spurred on by Global Warming the struggle for collaborative and coherent international co-operation is one such step.

There has to be co-operation. Global Warming is, as the name suggests, global. It is cross border. It doesn’t matter about cultural or religious differences. It doesn’t matter about political differences or geographical differences or economic differences. It just doesn’t matter. This is truly a global phenomenon that requires truly global agreement and action. We’re all in this together. We stand or we fall – together.

Yet, as has been stated, the longer the delay in reaching that agreement and moving on the actions, the greater the impact of Global Warming. The squabbling and the haggling we’ve seen so far, the arrogance and the intransigence, the impacts of Global Warming will lead only to slow but sure economic decline.

Yet make no mistake, change will take place in spite of the intransigence of polluting companies, of politicians afraid to act, of individuals who believe it is someone else’s problem.

It’s not if – but when. The wheels are starting to move … they just need to move faster and create a greater momentum in order to set in motion actions to combat at least some of the negative impacts on Global Warming.

What we are presented with is a series of opportunities. Opportunities to develop sustainably and strongly. Global Warming is a threat – but is only a continued threat if we refuse to do anything about it. Global Warming is in fact an opportunity to progress. If we refuse to recognise these opportunities, this is when the opportunities will transform into threats and then into unwanted consequences.

Surely we’re smarter than this. Aren’t we?

One of the greatest culprits contributing to Global Warming is the use of fossil fuels. There is an argument that we must continue to the use of fossil fuels to maintain economic viability. Once more, this is a misconception perpetuated by those who seek to maximise short term profitability at the cost of long term stability.

“Peak Oil” means that as the supply of oil slowly runs out, the price will increase. As coal becomes more difficult to mine, the price will increase. We know this is happening, yet … continue to burn fossil fuels as if there is no tomorrow, encouraged in various ways by those who tell us there is nothing to worry about. This is not economic viability. Tying ourselves to outdated and dirty technology is economic suicide.

Surely we’re smarter than this. Aren’t we? Increasing fossil fuel reliance means a greater level of atmospheric pollutants. It also means increasing energy costs with a reduced flexibility for economic growth and development.

As an example of working smarter, those countries who invest in new and sustainable energy sources will be the countries capable of fuelling their growth and development when all else is hampered by increasingly high energy costs. High energy costs diminish economic viability and the worlds economic map is about to be redrawn.

Those parts of the world continuing to cling on to outdated and polluting sources of energy will increasingly find themselves slipping economically. Those parts of the world who reach for a type of “energy independence” through sustainable energy, by using new technology, new areas of research and development, new thinking, new skills, will by those countries who step by step carry us all towards that greater sense of civilisation.

This is one of those moments that have the ability to change the world. It all depends on what YOU do now. This is THE moment. Like every moment in time, once the moment is gone, it is gone and cannot be returned to. Do not ignore this moment. There will never be another one quite like it again.

Plan A: relish the moment and act because once there is the benefit of “overwhelming proof”, it will be too late.

Plan B: there is no plan B. 

There's something about human nature ... we all think we're safe, don't we? In our modern world many people have a significant disregard for the forces of nature - and our ability to impact nature.

The world as we know it is a dynamic system. It doesn't stand still. With the inevitable increase in the greenhouse effect, the extremes of weather and the extreme consequences of weather are predicted to cause increasing damage, disruption and loss of life. This is rapidly accelerated climate change.

It is inevitable.

It will have far reaching consequences that will touch the lives of everyone.

It isn't just someone else's problem.

Regards

JS
 

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk