understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

A TIME OF GREAT CHOICE September, 2010

Take a good look at the world around you. Take a good look at your immediate world ... and then further out ... and then further out. What do you see?

No great surprise, but on a personal level, I see a series of opportunities and threats. As always I am shocked at how much countries and companies blatantly ignore the opportunities and even worse tend to think of threat as not their problem is it is somewhere else. Yet if the science of business psychology teaches us anything it is that as we live in a time of great change there are always consequences of events and the changes themselves - consequences that affect all of us.

Let's take a look at some examples of events, changes, choice and consequence.

All over the world there is the rise of anti-social behaviour undermining confidence and social cohesion - from a generation lost in virtual anarchy and encouraged by political correctness. They have been failed and as a consequence have failed - and fail everything they touch. There are choices here.

Iran has just suffered a deadly terrorist attack. Not the first and unfortunately probably not the last. Yet countries who export terror must realise that terrorism is a "double edged sword" - and as the saying goes ... you reap what you sow. If you continue doing what you are doing there will be consequences - and you know it. Work constructive, not destructively. You have caused this situation. There are choices here. Stop your pursuit of nuclear weapons and their undoubted export to the mad people of the world.

In Pakistan - wracked by devastating floods - yet wracked more by widespread internal corruption and the support of terrorism, they cannot understand why the world does not help more. The world does not help more because it perceives the money (or goods) will simply flow into secret bank accounts or will be diverted to aid the terrorists. You have caused this situation. There are choices here.

China and Japan are in dispute - not for the first time. Yet as history runs deep, we must all view the future with fresh eyes, learning from the past, not embroiled within it. Step out of the situation. There are choices here.

Israel and the Palestinians have a new round of peace talks. There are definitely choices here - this time hopefully the right choices. And it should be noted that some neighbouring countries would do well to stop interfering and meddling to deliberately cause trouble and distract from their own failed domestic policies. Yes, Iran, I mean you.

In Mexico the government is struggling to stabilise society from the onslaught of highly armed and well funded drugs barons who flood the "market" with drugs, supplying the groomed need of those with more money but less sense, increasing crime and dejection. There are choices here.

All across the world there is a secret and barely spoken of movement of people. This is human trafficking maintaining the ancient slave trade, either for fields or factories or homes, or for sexual slavery. They move from the underdeveloped areas of the world to the more affluent areas, controlled by organised crime who are also engaged in many other areas of crime and social destruction. Many governments choose to ignore the problem - a problem that WILL become worse in the next few years. There are choices here.

On a different scale, peak oil is starting to make itself felt. This will undoubtedly mean the slow but sure rise in the cost of oil to undermine economic resilience, increasing the cost of a whole range of other areas such as energy, food, transport, manufacturing, etc. Countries and companies with the short sighted view of refusing to move away from oil will suffer the most. There are choices here.

Over the next 12-24 months you will see a reduction in the availability of fresh water, a reduction in the amount of food produced in vulnerable regions of the world due partly to environmental effects but mostly due to gross mismanagement and a refusal to understand the concept of consequence. Do you think this will not affect you? Hmm ... think again. The above changes (which are only a few) WILL have consequences. There ARE choices here - and they do not entail a never ending supply of aid or charitable contributions. The world does not need any more of them.

The above are only a few areas of change and consequence that are taking place. I'm sure if you look around you will see many more. The fact is ... they are happening, and they are increasingly happening. The fact is ... there are also choices. We live in a time of great change and with great change comes great responsibility - responsibility to make the right choices instead of the path of least resistance favoured by many governments and companies around the world - ignoring the opportunities and certainly ignoring the threats in the hope they will happen to someone else.

Alt3 exists to give visibility of opportunity and threat. We know what we are talking about. And we are telling you - you really need to sit up and take notice because the world is changing. If you want to make it a better place for your society, for your company, for your family ... you really need to make the right choices.

Regards

JS
 

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

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