understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

WITH GREAT POWER ... June 2009

Those of you who know me on here know very well I have been frequent and vociferous with my congratulations to the Chinese government on its various initiatives, and how it has helped create the economic successes of China - thereby creating stability and benefit globally.

However, with great power comes great responsibility. True, some great powers in the recent past have been irresponsible and so have been condemned by the world. Will China go along the same route?

Chinese political influence is strong in certain regions of the world. In some regions of the world few major events can take place without the prior knowledge and say so of the Chinese government. And yet here we are - the world is being threatened with nuclear weapons by the ridiculous regime of North Korea.

China is about the only friend North Korea has. And so ... is China in control of this escalating situation? I would hazard a guess and say not. Therefore it should do something about the events unfolding before they completely destroy the green shoots of economic revival – and bring great disbenefit for everyone. Now, if China is in control of the situation then it can only be to gain influence over South Korea (as well as Taiwan) ... and this is a highly dangerous road to travel, especially with the type of regime in North Korea.

In these fragile times the world desperately needs stability. The last thing it needs is another war. The last thing it needs is yet more waste of finite resources, more extreme measures, more flag waving and flag burning.

But then again, Chinese influence could also halt the continuing genocide in the Sudan.

To the Chinese government ... be a great power. Great powers last longer when at the centre of stability and economic growth. They tend not to be so great when in the midst of destruction.

Are you a world power? Do you mean to grow stability or do you mean to go along a classical Sun Tzu strategy route of gaining influence and territory without outright conflict?

In these fragile times the world desperately needs stability. Take this responsibility seriously.

So ... the important series of questions are:

• how will events unfold?

• what is the long term strategy?

• what will be the short and long term impacts on political geography?

• what will be the short and long term impacts on the regional and global economies?

• how will this affect the fragile financial sector and other sectors?

• how will this affect you?

• what are the opportunities and threats?

• what are the likely mistakes?

Make no mistake, this will have an impact on you. In a dynamic world nothing ever stays the same. It would be a serious mistake to think these events will only impact someone else. We live in a global economy and serious forces are at work. Which may make you think ... is North Korea really such a ridiculous regime? Or is it being used by China to meet the political goals of the Chinese government?

Whatever the reason, whatever the questions, the world is about to be changed forever.

Regards

JS

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk