understanding opportunity and risk

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THE GREATEST THREAT September, 2009

We live in a global society. An event in one area invariably sends ripples of repercussion out into most other areas. One of the greatest benefits to this, our global society, is our ability to harness change for the better. All throughout history we have had to defeat ignorance and mayhem designed by those who would hold us back and use conflict as a means towards their own personal power. It's been difficult and we're still doing it, yet history shows we've achieved this many times in the past and so now, today, should not be dissuaded by the worthwhile nature of the task ahead.

So ... ahead of us just what will be the greatest threat the world will have to contend with in 3-5 years?

Will it be climate change and global warming?

Will it be another global financial meltdown?

Will it be a pandemic to rage through the population?

Will it be a massive energy crisis when peak oil starts to erode sustainability?

Will it be a giant asteroid hurtling through the darkness of space?

Will it be the reduction in fresh water availability and reduction in crop growth?

All of the above are real dangers - some more so than others. All of the above will at some point play a significant part in the development of the future, demanding concerted international action. However, as the above are very real and potentially catastrophic the opinion of Alt3 is that they are not the greatest danger the world will have to contend with within 3-5 years.

The greatest danger is by far even more distasteful, inhuman and insane than all of the above combined.

The current extremist regime of Iran which can no longer lay claim to any form of democracy has a long history of "distraction politics". That is, blaming everyone else for its own failed policies, pointing at shadowy external interference, and by funding specific terrorist groups ratcheting up the international pressure through conflict, again distracting from their own internal failures.

The Iranian government is once more about to covertly continue with their programme of nuclear weaponisation. At a best guess, within 2 years Iran will have nuclear weapons. They look at what is happening in North Korea, they look at the completely disjointed international response to their own programme and they say to themselves ... keep everyone talking and hoping for a deal while we develop nuclear weapons. Play for time. Within 2 years they will have nuclear weapons. Within 3 years one or more of these weapons will be in the hands of Iranian sponsored terrorists with well known targets either in the Middle East or in the west. And so if nuclear conflict suddenly erupts the Iranian government will hold its hands up to deny liability. The true nature of extremism. Extremists don't care who or how many they kill or in what manner they kill, or what they destroy - they simply want to destroy everything and everyone. This is true madness.

On the other hand if the US or Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will demand that the world condemns the aggressors for an unwarranted attack - and will whip up a frenzy of anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment to spread extremism even further.

On the surface the greatest threat to the world as we know it may well seem to be something like global warming. Yet beneath the surface, like the proverbial ice berg, is a far greater destructive power - and that power today is the Iranian nuclear weapons programme - the real, soon to be tangible weapons of mass destruction. Make no mistake, these weapons will be used. They will not be there for show. They will not be there for defence. They are on their way. This is not "nuclear research".

It is ironic therefore, that the nuclear programme is partially aided by Russian and Chinese skills - both of whom have their own issues with extremists. It would be even more ironic - and just as unwanted - if an Iranian nuclear weapon was to find its way into the hands of these others.

Dangerous times are being created by extremists and the failure of the international community to effectively combat these extremists. What will this mean for the different people around the world? What will this mean for the global economic outlook? What will this mean for financial stability, for growth, for development, for jobs, for your company, for your products / services, for the future of our children?

In all honesty ... we hope we are wrong but so far ... we've been right all along. It's a chilling realisation, one we fully expect the world to take absolutely no notice of ... until it is too late.

Regards

JS

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk