understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

NEW YEAR - NEW OPPORTUNITY January, 2010

Without a doubt, on a number of different levels the world is approaching a critical point. This is generally termed "convergence". It is the convergence of a number of major factors at one time, which magnifies the impact of the individual factors.

However, as the world faces this major challenge, for one continent - Africa - this may well be the time to make a massive leap forward. True, Africa will suffer from shortages of water, peak oil and a range of other factors affecting the world in general. But Africa has a greater resilience than even it believes. Opportunity is opening up for significant investment in the future of Africa ... and the future of the world.

For decades, if not centuries, the resources of Africa have been plundered by outsiders - and heavily squandered by those who should have shown better government within the different African countries. But still resources remain, including an almost infinite amount of renewable energy as well as business sense amid an emerging market. This is attracting an unrivalled amount of interest from outside of Africa even in todays continuing unsettled economic landscape.

If Africa is to be successful it needs to avoid the worst consequences of peak oil - and fully grasp their renewable energy sources as a means of gaining energy independence and propelling development without the heavy cost restrictions that will be felt throughout the remainder of the world.

The economic power houses within Africa - such as Nigeria and Kenya - have major roles to play ... but only if they overcome their own very unique challenges. Nigeria, for example, MUST:

• gain a greater level of national unity
• gain greater (current) government cohesion
• combat corruption and a perceived lack of fairness within its own borders
• not allow the extremists to undermine growth and development and split the country into hideous warring factions
• use oil revenue to increase future development

And imagine the stabilising regional impact of a Kenya that manages to fulfill all its strategic economic and political goals. This will be possible if Kenya can:

• secure water sources for its agriculture
• not allow the most productive land to be bought up by foreign companies with the sole intention of exporting food only
• secure renewable energy sources to continuously feed national development
• resist the temptation to be involved in the extremist conflicts of the north and east of Kenya
• increases its tourism and other industries as an important revenue source away from the reliance on agriculture

Indeed, at the mercy of extremism, corruption and global challenges such as water, oil and climate change, Africa needs stability. It is important for the outside world to note that significant progress has been made with respect to stability and growth - and Africa is no longer a continent reliant on foreign aid. Yet now is the time to increase the momentum of this stability and growth, to spread beyond the pockets and create a continent wide shift that will benefit all people, not only Africans. There is no doubt this will take vision and it will take courage - and it will take properly focused investment, not because this is Africa, but because this is a new era.

Regards

JS
 

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk