understanding opportunity and risk

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

THE NUCLEAR SPECTRE July 2009

During the prolonged period of the Cold War it was understandable (I hate to say reasonable, because it wasn't) for major state powers to create and build up their nuclear arsenals. It was much less clear how India and Pakistan could afford such vast expense. This just shows the power of fear.
 
Without a doubt, nuclear weapons have a special place in our collective psyche. Nuclear weapons aren't the most destructive WMD. They are in fact difficult, dangerous and expensive - as well as causing a complete outcry throughout the world. Without a doubt nuclear weapons have a special symbolism in our minds. They inspire fear and this is why they are much sought after by those who wish to inspire fear among neighbours and enemies. For some such weapons are testament to mans madness. For others they are a means to bully the world. And with regard to nuclear weapons and human behaviourisms ... this is the dangerous part.
 
Just when we thought it was safe to breathe a sigh of relief and attempt to think the numbers and spread of nukes may even start to decrease ... the petty dictators with dubious philosophies dare to drag the world towards the brink of disaster once more.
 
The governments of both Iran and North Korea are governments that show such dire disrespect to their own people - and everyone else they can think of. They are governments and systems at the heart of which is hate and the promise of destruction. They are pushing the world towards this promised destruction. The Iranian government says it is pursuing nuclear energy for "peaceful purposes" - yet everyone knows this is coded speak for creating nuclear weapons and either handing them over to terrorists or to directly attack other states. At least the North Koreans are honest about their intentions to create nuclear weapons (and sell them to the highest bidder?), not that this gives any sense of comfort.
 
Bearing in mind the hate and the destructive nature of these dictatorships it is just so completely inconceivable that they are supplied with nuclear materials by the Russians and Chinese. How mad is that? How irresponsible is this?
 
Just what do they think will happen if the world is engulfed in a nuclear mushroom cloud? Just what will happen if, for example, Israel is attacked with nuclear weapons? What will be the effect? Will it end there? What will be the repercussions? Will Irans neighbours actually feel safe? Who will be next? And yes, there WILL be a next especially if in the hands of terrorists who find cause to hate almost everyone. Bullies and blackmailers never stop at just one event. The fact is ... the Iranian government and their philosophy of hate will undoubtedly be safe in a deep protective bunker, only to emerge at some later date to a scene of utter destruction - and then proclaim the rest of the world to be demons.
 
I am a futurist. I don't have a crystal ball. But ... I do understand how people behave and react and dream. The world tries not to think of disasters or the rise of dictators. Yet the time has come to do just that. For a long time I have been a voice of moderation and have supported dialogue and strategic initiatives to create stability. Yet every attempt to speak and create that mutual understanding and respect has been met with threats and deepening division. The time has come to realise that any appeasement of the Iranian and North Korean governments is being seen as a definite weakness - a weakness they use to gain time and to build their weapons. These are weapons they will use as they attempt to bully the world and spread their vision of destruction. We cannot allow this to happen. Neither is there any point attempting to reason with madmen.
 
There will be no point saying "I told you so" after the event.
 
The race of man has long since had to contend with the ambitions of mad men and bad men in many guises. We deserve better than this.

Regards

JS

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk