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PANDEMIC April, 2009
Let's face it, what bigger news story is there in the world today?
Even if it is hype, even if it is the media moving from the disaster of the credit crunch to the potential even deeper disaster of a pandemic (the media need sensationalism to sell their space and time), we just have to take notice.
Even if the present "swine flu" (H1N1) turns out not to be a pandemic, it still needs to be taken notice of. People have died. People are falling ill. Even if this isn't a pandemic ... we most definitely have to take notice. Why? Because it's not a matter of "if", but "when" the real event happens. And when it happens, it will happen quickly. It will spread quickly and it will devastate populations, societies and economies.
The swine flu displays one thing quite clearly. Governments around the world are well prepared - and these plans are swinging into action. They are well prepared because for a number of years many have had pandemic plans in place for an expected outbreak of "bird flu" (H5N1), jumping species and causing havoc throughout human society.
Much like an asteroid hitting the Earth - the experts agree ... it will happen. The question is just when will it happen?
Pandemics can be seen throughout history. They are not completely unusual events. They happen when a micro-organism mutates into a new form of pathogen to which there is no immediate widespread natural immunity. Mutations happen all the time. But sometimes, just sometimes, these mutations can cause a previously largely unnoticed bacteria or virus to turn nasty - and with nasty consequences.
Some experts say we are well overdue for the next pandemic. Therefore, even if H1N1 turns out not to be one - one will be on its way at some point. And certainly, these days in our world, the consequences are likely to be far more serious than in previous pandemics.
Why?
Because there are more people than ever before. Because many of these people are now concentrated in overcrowded cities with poor hygiene and access to medical facilities. And most of all, the speed of modern transport links has been shown to be a critical factor in the present spread of H1N1. Basically people move to a completely different part of the world even before they realise they are ill, or realise there is an illness around them. This is a major problem. H1N1 doesn't seem to be particularly virulent (in spite of the media hype), but if it were then it could spread across most of the world before the alarm bells started ringing - and those well laid plans were brought into action. But of course, by then quarantines would be largely ineffective.
And if a virulent bug did cause a major pandemic, the conservative casualty figures would be quickly surpassed as hospitals filled up, as medical staff succumbed to the illness, as existing medications would be quite ineffective, as panic began to grip a population and spread to crumble the thin veneer of civilisation, as food and power distribution began to strain. Maintaining law and order under such circumstances would be essential - but would be difficult.
And so ... even if H1N1 proves not to be the dangerous story so grabbed on by the media ... it does show the potential. And before the worlds attention is turned to the next impending doom and gloom story, take a moment to think of just what might happen - and how vulnerable your family and you will be when the predicted real and major pandemic silently steals across the horizon ... and wipes out large sections of every population.
What sort of a world will survive? As with many things to do with future changes and developments ... the world is often not what is commonly perceived. It's amazing how normal it is to behave like an ostrich then act surprised when something takes place that alters the individuals perfect view of the never changing world. It's a bit like the medieval version of the heavens. It was perfect. Nothing changed. People were burned at the stake for suggesting the heavens changed. And then the heavens could be seen to have changed. People like me, we predict changes. Few people ever pay attention ... until it is too late. Lessons are rarely learned. We aren't as smart as we think we are.
Regards
JS
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?
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