FUTURE RISK CAPABILITY: understanding opportunity and threat

minimising future risk       creating sustainable advantage       creating opportunity

FUTURE RISK: BUSINESS CONTINUITY and DISASTER RECOVERY.                  August, 2011

I've been doing some work recently on business continuity and disaster recover - and I'm surprised and shocked at how so many organisations leave themselves vulnerable to sudden change.

We all live in the real world. We all know the world is changing. We all know the pace of change is increasing. We all know bad things happen - we've seen them on our television screens and, on occasion, we've experienced them firsthand. We all know there are extreme events. And yet ... and yet ... we all seem to steadfastly believe these extreme events, these unforeseen developments and sudden changes will always happen to someone else. We all seem to believe that by some miracle we will always be unscathed. It will always be someone elses problem. And yet ... and yet ... when they do happen to us, we throw our hands up in horror ... and we struggle to survive - literally.

It needed be like this.

If you are the type of person who likes to think in terms of "no risk", and who buries their head so they don't see the future with all its potential opportunities and threats, who is resistant to change, who is a clear and present danger to corporate survival ... then, I'll be honest, this article really isn't for you.

Why? Because in a changing world, in any highly dynamic environment with complex variables, you, as an organisation, really need to understand the steps you are taking. Emerging blindly into such a dynamic environment is a sure recipe for disaster, among this being avoidably high costs and loss of market share. Can you afford this to happen? My guess is, you can't. I mean, why hand success to your competitors?

You cannot afford to bury your head in the sand and pretend the world is not changing, that change will not impact you, that there is no risk. The real world demands realism.

Understanding future risk and future opportunity means understanding how the world is changing. It isn't changing as randomly as you might think. And, if it isn't completely random, it needn't be completely unknown. There are patterns. If you know these patterns, you can have a good idea of the opportunities and threats facing you in the near future.

Often, the threats can be negated through organisational change. If they can't, you can then assess the probability of their impact. Even something with a remote possibility should be considered. There are many examples of what happens when extreme events are NOT considered possible and so not planned for. This is a very costly mistake. Extreme events WILL happen. And what else is sure, is that they won't always happen to someone else. At some point the are likely to happen happen to you. Again, there are many examples of what might happen.

Believe me, in a fast changing world, what was considered extreme for yesterday is old news for today.

Business Continuity requires you understand and plan for these extreme potentials - to enable your business to continue to function. If it fails to continue, it fails to survive. This, therefore, is a serious matter. What are these extreme events? How can I survive the unthinkable? How can my business continue to function at that moment and the near future after the extreme event?

Disaster Recovery goes hand in hand with Business Continuity. Disaster recovery requires you to think about, and plan for, the often long and slow recovery following the extreme event. An event happens - your tried and tested business continuity kicks into action to enable your business to continue to function ... what then? Your DR capability will then allow you to work around what has been lost, and slowly and surely regain what has been lost in order to return you to your original state.

And do you think this is simple?

If it was so simple, why are so many organisations so completely unprepared? Why are so many highly vulnerable to change, to sudden events, to extreme events and, yes, to the unthinkable? They are unprepared and they are vulnerable because they have not thought about it, they have not planned and they believe bad things only happen to someone else.

Whoever is responsible for this way of thinking is probably more of a danger to your organisation that the extreme events they should be planning for. Complacence is NOT a survivability trait.

As the world is changing, as turbulence increases, the variables that can cause disaster are many. This is "future risk". It is the identification of those risk factors important to your business. It is then the mitigation of those risks in order to ensure your business survives and it flourishes in the face of significant challenge and change.

In a fast changing world, future risk is quite possibly even more important than "business as usual". If you aren't interested, you are vulnerable. No one wants to be vulnerable.

Regards

JS

If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?

The turbulent 21st century

life isn't black and white

central@alt3.co.uk