FUTURE RISK CAPABILITY: understanding opportunity and threat
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PRESENT RISK: Iran and its drive towards nuclear weaponry September, 2011
There can be little doubt - time is running out.
As the world continues to squabble over political and cultural divides, as it's attention is diverted to the continuing change throughout the Middle East region (and of course the rush for the new business interests) the extremist government of Iran is making great strides towards creating their very own nuclear weapons.
Should this trouble the world?
Yes it should because where as other countries have significant reasons NOT to use nuclear weapons, Iran has significant reasons to use nuclear weapons. The Iranian government manages to survive through the heavy suppression of its own people and the regional spread of violence / hatred - and therefore acting as a self-created justification of its own existence.
And ... they will be in a position to spread even more violence and hatred by 2012, or 2013 at the latest through the brandishing and the potential use of nuclear weapons. In all truth, this should be ringing alarm bells throughout the world. And yet the Iranians are adept at stalling tactics. All the time they stall over talks and negotiations and inspector access, they are working to achieve their goal. Their goal is destruction. This is not being overly dramatic. It is highlighting the risk we all face. A serious and significant risk that will impact on all countries, all companies, all people.
And exactly what will happen if Iran achieves nuclear weapons? Will it be so bad? After all, there are obviously other countries who also have nuclear weapons. The proliferation of nuclear weapons should alarm all people. Even more so if they accidently or willingly end up in the hands of terrorists who, in many cases, welcome the opportunity to commit dramatic mass murder.
Will YOU be in the vicinity?
There are a number of scenarios that need to be examined in detail. All are horrific. All are real. All involve Irans ambition of becoming the main regional power broker through the destruction of what it sees as enemy states / enemy cultures. The people of the Middle East really need to be worried about this.
The possibilities are:
1. Iran will hand over nuclear weapons to its terrorist allies. The main target will then either be Israel or will be somewhere in the Middle East. The easy target would be somewhere in the Middle East.
2. Iran will handle the deployment itself. The main targets for Iran will either be the US or Israel yet both of which have significant security in place, and so the likelihood is that the secondary targets will either be a main western city or will be a main city in the Middle East.
Note: there is no option here for Iran to simply hold on to the nuclear weapons as some form of deterrent. The Iranian government are not interested in deterrents. They are interested in furthering their extremist aims by any means possible. If they have nuclear weapons - they WILL use them.
Either of the above two, very realistic, options are enough to plunge the world into catastrophe. The consequences are:
1. In retaliation, Israel launches its own nuclear strike against Iran and effectively obliterates the entire country. Or, if the strike is at an easy target in a Middle Eastern city, quite apart from the significant loss of life and material damage, the world will be launched into economic and environmental melt down, which in turn will cause widespread conflict.
Iran, of course, will deny its involvement, just as it is as present denying the production of nuclear weapons. Yet no one will believe them then either - and the Iranian government will isolate themselves from the hardships that they befall the Iranian people.
2. If Iran handles the deployment itself - and takes the "credit" for a first-strike against Israel or the US, there will be massive and instant retaliation that will transform the region into a wasteland. Likewise, if one of the easier secondary targets is hit, the international community will, for once, overcome its own internal squabbling and be galvanised into action, realise how wrong it has been for all this time - and be fearful, with their own terrorist threats, that the next nuclear explosion may well be on their ground. They will realise that, together, they would have to deal with the real and present danger.
... but of course, regardless of the consequences, the damage will have been done and the world will take many, many years to recover. One thing will be sure, if Irans creates nuclear weapons ... the world will never be the same again. This really should be a cause for grave concern - and concerted action.
The people of the Middle East have, in the last year, experienced upheaval. What they have experienced will seem very, very little in comparison to the true upheaval that will rage across their region and throughout the world if Iran creates nuclear weapons.
You have been warned.
We at Alt3 understand completely that when we speak of change, of the range of opportunity and threat presenting themselves in times of great change, we understand that people often dismiss the threats. They mistakenly believe bad things only happen to someone else. This is a serious, serious error. Regardless of what you think about Iran or the Middle East or Israel or the US or European culture ... just think, for one moment, think of the sheer destruction that may well take place simply because few people took the situation seriously.
To the Iranian government, I would say ... this is not the way to be remembered.
Regards
JS
If you don't understand the risks, how can you prepare? Can you afford to let the issues be blurred?
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